Senator Chris Murphy said the administration’s Iran plan is insane. A lot of people heard that and started looking for the exit. Here is the piece of paper I use to decide whether a statement like that deserves a reaction, and why this one does not.

Start by not reacting. Politicians’ statements rarely contain actionable information, and most of the time the right move is to ignore them. Power speaks through actions; the words are marketing. That doesn’t mean they’re not important. It means we have to treat them with a different type of rigor.

Iceberg, not fortune cookie

A soundbite is a small, unreliable amount of information. Treat it like an iceberg: one part is visible, the rest is under the water. In this case, the tip of the iceberg is the statement made at the Middle East Institute itself:

“You’ve heard a preview that it would be a short-duration plan. I will just say this: their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”

He said insane. Fine. That is what he said and it is the tip of the iceberg. Let’s look below the waterline at the who, where and when, which all support the why.

Who: an opposition senator who has criticized this administration on Iran since before the first strikes. Where: a public forum at a Washington think tank, on camera, the day after a classified briefing, which means he cannot describe the plan, only characterize it. When: five days before a midterm election, about a plan the Pentagon prepared for after that election, so the timing of the statement is the timing of the vote.

After a brief peek at the undercarriage of the iceberg, the why becomes clear.

A senator who wants to constrain a war he cannot stop goes public with a strong statement against it. This happens at a time when it is politically advantageous for Democrats to appear as the party of rational restraint.

But there’s another layer to this, and it benefits the Trump administration.

Last-minute negotiations are ongoing with Iran. Washington has not exactly been subtle about its saber rattling. Stories of soldiers rehearsing the digging of mass graves, the considered use of the Mother of All Bombs (MOAB), and even nuclear options have grabbed headlines.

Iran’s negotiating team reads the same headlines as everyone else. Saying things to gain leverage during a negotiation is easy and cheap. It’s even better when the statements come from the other side, as they did in this case.

So that’s the iceberg. What’s the fortune cookie?

The fortune cookie trap

A fortune cookie is the opposite of an iceberg. It gives you a tiny amount of information and invites you to find a larger truth inside it.

Things will change soon.

A journey begins with a single step.

Help, I’m trapped in a cookie factory.

It feels like it says everything because it says nothing. Psychologists call this the Barnum effect: a statement so vague that it could apply to anyone. We supply the context from our own experiences and political priorities. We personalize them and they become stone-cold truth.

Most people read political statements like fortune cookies. They take the word insane, add their own fears about the region, and come out the other side convinced the senator just told them something. He did not. He told them how he feels about a plan he is not allowed to describe, at a moment when feeling that way in public is useful to him.

The reality is, big actions usually don’t have major overtures. We saw the invasion of Ukraine coming because of a buildup of troops on the border, not because people threatened it endlessly.

Think back to the statements that came before Midnight Hammer, before Maduro was taken in Venezuela, or before Operation Epic Fury. Do you remember them?

No. Because there weren’t any. The strikes on Iran happened during active negotiations. No one saw it coming when Maduro was grabbed (it was probably a surprise to him too). Usually, if you’re going to punch someone, you don’t spend a lot of time telling them the how, when and where its going to happen.

When you hear statements, think icebergs, not fortune cookies. Watch for the thing that costs money or political capital. Words cost neither.

Bottom line

An opposition senator calling a plan insane during election week, in public, with negotiations underway and the administration happy to look unpredictable, works for everyone. Notice it, but don’t act on it. If the plan is real, you will see it in deployments before you hear it in speeches, and that is where attention belongs.

NOTE: Senator Chris Murphy has recently suffered a stroke and The Under Report wishes him a speedy recovery.