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Hey Everyone,
Here's a question to hold while you read.
What happens when the common ground runs out?
Every country needs places that everyone agrees to leave alone. The open sea lanes. The nuclear plant nobody shoots at. The health system that alarms at an outbreak rather than bowing to politics. The flag on the back of a ship.
The game only works if there is neutral space to keep the rules neutral. This week five different players grabbed the referee by the collar.
Let's get to it,
Eric
P.S. I'm going to be coming out with my "Next 90 Days Forecast” next week. All subscribers will get immediate access to how I see the next three months playing out.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The US is running the largest naval blockade since the Cuban Missile Crisis in Iran. This is an escalation in the conflict and something has to break.
Russia cries nuclear foul after a killing in the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Moscow's strategy is in free-fall and that makes it dangerous.
The third-largest Ebola outbreak on record has reached the edge of US policy. The strain driving it outruns the vaccine that stopped the last one.
Jihadists run a parallel state across the Sahel, and a strategic town changed hands twice in one week.
China made the world's second-largest ship registry and Panama is flying to Beijing to make it stop (this sounds boring but its not).
Blockading the Blockaders
What happened. We have been saying for weeks that the ceasefire was a word people said, not a condition anyone kept. American forces struck Iran for a sixth straight night around Bandar Abbas, and Iranian officials reported at least eight killed along with damage to a train station and power facilities (their figures, and we cannot confirm them).
Iran's Health Ministry put the weeklong toll at about 35 dead and 300 wounded as of July 15, a count that will be stale by the time you read this. The bigger move happened at sea. On July 14 Washington reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and on Wednesday US forces fired on a commercial tanker headed toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. Trump floated a 20 percent toll on every ship crossing Hormuz, then dropped it hours before the blockade took effect and pointed to Gulf investment pledges. The toll lasted a few hours.
Why it matters. If it feels like we've been here before, we actually haven't. The US is blockading the blockaders, as a final option before massive escalation in Iran. This is an indication that Washington is out of options for it's impossible goals. For decades the US sold itself as the country that keeps the sea lanes open for everybody. It's fallen apart in the last 100 days and runs the risk of not coming back. The thing about bad ideas in geopolitics is, if they work, everyone gets to do them. There are two options here and both are bad for Washington. Either reduce expectations for a deal and give Iran what it wants, or double down and commit to a lengthy military engagement.
What we're looking for.
Whether the US makes good on Trump's threat to hit Iranian power plants and bridges, which the IRGC has named a red line.
Kharg Island itself. A strike on the terminal would mark the jump from a siege to a much larger war.
Brent crude prices and the reserve standings of the US. At some point, the price at the pump can't be kept down with emergency supplies.
Russia's Falling Knife
What happened. Russia is a knife falling toward the floor. It's more dangerous on its way down. The battlefield gains have collapsed this year while its casualties climb. A ban on its own diesel exports took hold through July 31, driven by shortages caused by Ukrainian long-range strikes. This leaves the world's second-largest diesel exporter rationing fuel at home. And in Washington, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 landed July 16 with more than 60 cosponsors including Majority Leader John Thune, who moved the same week to tee up a floor vote. Then came the plant. Rosatom says a Ukrainian drone killed Alexander Yakovlev, chief engineer at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, along with his driver. The IAEA's Rafael Grossi confirmed a death and condemned the attack even though Ukraine denies committing it.
Why it matters. The sanctions bill is the real shift. The US has turned on Russia again. This version makes the sanctions mandatory. It stacks tariffs as high as 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian crude, which means China and India. Pressure on Moscow becomes a standing legal fact. Fused to Graham's death, it carries a momentum that is hard to stop. Meanwhile Russia holds Zaporizhzhia by occupation, and it is using a death there to manufacture a safety crisis and lean on the IAEA to bless its control. It also brings nuclear weapons to the front of everyone's mind.
What we're looking for.
Whether Thune puts the bill on the floor inside the July work period, and whether the China and India tariffs survive the horse-trading.
Any action by the IAEA which has previously worked to stabilize the nuclear plant in Zaproizhzhia.
Russia's move if the bill passes, with the plant, the Baltic, and NATO airspace the likeliest places it pushes back.
Ebola Gets a Head Start
What happened. The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the third-largest on record. (Also it's growing more or less out of control). As of July 14 the DRC reported 2,011 confirmed cases and 754 deaths across five provinces, with Ituri at the center. The WHO's emergencies chief, back from the ground, called it the fastest single-month growth of any Ebola outbreak the agency has managed. And the outbreak reached the edge of US policy. Airport screening are increasing, but this doesn't stop the outbreak from spreading.
Why it matters. The world doesn't have the infrastructure to deal with the current outbreak. This is the Bundibugyo species, a different animal from the Zaire Ebola Virus that our vaccines and treatments were built to fight. This leaves the response without a countermeasure. The 2018 North Kivu outbreak took 235 days to pass 1,000 cases. This one did it in 40. Cases have surfaced in Uganda and France, and an American missionary doctor caught the virus in the DRC back in May. Think of the global health system as a firewall. It holds because governments trust a shared setup of screening, notification, and WHO coordination to keep a regional outbreak regional. That firewall is up for renewal on a 30-day clock, inside an administration that has cut into the agencies that run it. The wall gets renewed by July 21 or it comes down on schedule.
What we're looking for.
Whether the CDC and DHS renew the entry limits before July 21, or let them lapse into the outbreak's fastest stretch.
The Bundibugyo treatment trial running in the DRC, the one real shot at a certified countermeasure.
Any case that shows up outside the known transmission chains, which is how a regional emergency goes global.
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