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THE UNDER REPORT
Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger

Author, Journalist, RPCV Graduate of Oxford University and The RAND School of Public Policy. Former Ambassador.

Talking or Fighting?

Sep 26, 2026

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8 min read

Talking or Fighting?

Iran offers to reopen Hormuz while its tankers still burn, Revolutionary Guard advisers put the Houthis on both sides of the Bab al-Mandab, Russia entertains an energy truce while it locks its bank of the Narva, Xi and Trump trade truce dates instead of terms, and Ethiopia stops talking altogether.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Russia's War Expands: What Would it Look Like?

Sep 23, 2026

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4 min read

Russia's War Expands: What Would it Look Like?

Europe is nervous about an expansionist Russia. Here's what it would look like, and some indicators that we have already seen play out.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Five Lit Fuses

Sep 19, 2026

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7 min read

Five Lit Fuses

A Houthi flag on the island in the Bab el-Mandeb and twelve days until America leaves Iraq. Russian drones at NATO's fence and hundreds of thousands in uniform in Tehran, this week's developments show five fuses burning while the old guarantor answers with arms sales and announcements. In Silicon Valley, the firms building frontier AI ask Washington for a referee and hear no.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Do Russian Elections Matter?

Sep 16, 2026

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3 min read

Do Russian Elections Matter?

Yes. But it's not about who leads, its about what the Russian people will tolerate.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Fires Everywhere

Sep 11, 2026

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8 min read

Fires Everywhere

The Houthis take the mouth of the Red Sea. Algeria kicks the UAE out of its country. Germany's far right wins, but can't govern yet. Washington's charm offensive fails to bring Russia and Ukraine together. The US is putting the Western Hemisphere on sale and my weekly predictions.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Fighting Words

Sep 6, 2026

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8 min read

Fighting Words

A Russia-Iran meeting in Bishkek that ended with a nuclear draft and ten signatures, and a bond market that raised the cost of borrowing for every government at once. An Israeli division holding a Lebanese ridge Iran had marked as a red line, and the Pentagon taking a century-long stake in Venezuelan crude. This week's developments show power being measured in reactors, basis points, and who holds the high ground. Meanwhile, Bolivia takes over its own oil company because it can no longer afford to fill it.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Why Does Iran Want Hypersonic Missiles?

Sep 2, 2026

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2 min read

Why Does Iran Want Hypersonic Missiles?

They go fast enough to kill an aircraft carrier before anyone notices.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Stormy Weather Ahead

Aug 28, 2026

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7 min read

Stormy Weather Ahead

Europe is baking and major storms are on the horizon, they're repricing strained markets. Operation Economic Outcast barely raises an eyebrow, and that's a problem. Floods in Nepal point back to China. Meanwhile, AI agents jail-broke themselves and committed a felony.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Can Iran Toll the Strait of Hormuz?

Aug 26, 2026

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2 min read

Can Iran Toll the Strait of Hormuz?

Yes. In fact it might be good business. But there's a big however here. If Iran and Oman can secure the strait and charge for transit, its likely that new infrastructure will be built to render the strait immaterial. As usual, this is a game of clocks. Let's break it down.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Will Economic D-Day Work?

Aug 24, 2026

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7 min read

Will Economic D-Day Work?

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched Operation Economic Outcast, a sanctions campaign built to finish the Iranian government by financial siege. The bet is that severing Iran's last commercial lifelines will force Tehran to fold or its people to rise. The record behind this strategy, and the map of countries positioned to spoil it, deserve a closer look than the branding.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
War by Bottom Line

Aug 21, 2026

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8 min read

War by Bottom Line

The US is waging an Economic D-Day on Iran, but its likely to fail. North Korea launches missiles while planning meetings with Trump. Migrants move on Cueta due to mysterious messages online. Israel hits Turkey in Syria and Brazil begins the fight for the future of South America.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Got Missiles?

Aug 14, 2026

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8 min read

Got Missiles?

The US is running low on everything needed to fight a war from missiles to manpower. North Korea is flexing its muscles based on Russian financing. Haiti's gangs make democracy impossible. Kazakhstan catches strays from Ukraine. And of course, my weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Toll Story 2

Aug 7, 2026

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7 min read

Toll Story 2

Iran and Oman might make the world pay to use the Strait. Will the US be pulled into an unpopular peace or fight a war that can't be won? Hamas might be disarming, but the danger hasn't gone away. China loses sailors in a standoff with the Philippines. Venezuela asks when the democracy is going to happen.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Controlling the Flame

Jul 31, 2026

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7 min read

Controlling the Flame

Two Arab nations join the fight against Iran in the light of day. Ukraine hints at merging two wars into one. Tokyo and Manila join forces against Beijing. The biggest migration into Spain might be a weapon. And Eric's weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
That Shouldn't be on Fire

Jul 24, 2026

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7 min read

That Shouldn't be on Fire

The security umbrella of the United States is wearing thin. The Iran War has gone hot, dragging the entire region into the firing line. Saudi Arabia is looking for a nuclear option of its own. Meanwhile Ukraine sets fire to Russian logistics hubs, and Colombia joins the fight against narco-terrorists. All that and my weekly forecast for subscribers.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Falling Knives

Jul 17, 2026

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7 min read

Falling Knives

Great powers are most dangerous when they're falling. This week we're seeing the principle play out in a strike on a nuclear site and a blockade of a blockade. It's happening as jihadists carve a state out of a new security bloc in West Africa. Meanwhile, China picks an important fight with the Panamanian flag. (Also my weekly prediction).

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The Ceasefire To Nowhere

Jul 10, 2026

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8 min read

The Ceasefire To Nowhere

Iran and the United States are in direct conflict again because the real decision makers aren't at the table. Ukraine enhances its status as arms manufacturers as Russia becomes more dangerous. Rebels in Mali score another downed helicopter. Turkey and Israel rattle their sabers at NATO. And, my weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Price Wars

Jul 3, 2026

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6 min read

Price Wars

This week we're seeing business as a weapon. Sometimes geopolitics is more about who is buying and selling rather than who is killing and dying. Ukraine becomes an arms exporter. China slaps US companies with export controls. North Korea flexes its muscles while urea makes a return trip to pre-war price points.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
We're Wrong About Hezbollah

Jul 1, 2026

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5 min read

We're Wrong About Hezbollah

Dispatch #1 from Southern Lebanon

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Impossible Problems

Jun 27, 2026

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7 min read

Impossible Problems

This week we have an agreement between the US, Lebanon, and Israel that sparked protests in Beirut while the war grinds on. Colombia flips right wing and a quake rocks Venezuela. Ukraine unleashes a huge attack on Russia and the Sahel States open back up to the West. Also, a link to my new podcast and weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Don't Call Them Refugees

Jun 23, 2026

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3 min read

Don't Call Them Refugees

How to talk about the people who are going home again

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
I'm The Boss

Jun 19, 2026

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6 min read

I'm The Boss

Another ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel pits Washington against Tel Aviv. Meanwhile Iran is doing a victory lap while Donald Trump attempts to sell the end of aggression against Iran as a win. North Korea makes waves, The Sahel lights up and my predictions for the coming week.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
"Tomorrow More"

Jun 12, 2026

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7 min read

"Tomorrow More"

This week we're watching a series of trains accelerate towards collision. The Iran War had the breaks on for a couple of months but now its full steam ahead. Ebola destabilizes The Democratic Republic of the Congo while exposing fractures in Kenya. Albanian protests seek shuffle leadership while Kim and Xi meet for tea.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Sazan Documents: Publishing the Tender and the Masterplan in Full

Jun 9, 2026

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4 min read

Sazan Documents: Publishing the Tender and the Masterplan in Full

What they are and why I am publishing them

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
It's Not About the Flamingos

Jun 5, 2026

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6 min read

It's Not About the Flamingos

This week the war between Iran and the United States hinges on the question of Lebanon. Meanwhile, China flexes its muscles in the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific. Bolivia is bending to its breaking point while Europe builds immigration centers that it once derided. In my own backyard protests grip Albania as a shady deal takes public land.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
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The Under Report by Eric Czuleger

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