Eric Czuleger

Author, Journalist, RPCV Graduate of Oxford University and The RAND School of Public Policy. Former Ambassador.

May 14, 2026

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6 min read

Limits of Power

US power is straining while President Trump goes to China. Meanwhile a new virus is having some curious policy effects. Russia moves towards a deal with Ukraine while cozying up to North Korea and Europe is moving to a war footing.

Eric Czuleger

May 7, 2026

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7 min read

The Cat is Dead

Foreign policy is hitting the hard wall of reality all over the world. Saudi shuts its airspace to a US operation. China and Japan dictate terms in a round of upcoming meetings. Somalia descends into violence as we see who controls the Horn of Africa. It's time to open Schrödinger's box and find out which reality is undeniable.

Eric Czuleger

Apr 30, 2026

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11 min read

The Dirty Work

Power is leaping over borders and the only people looking at the map are the ones stuck in the past. This week states are projecting power through private contractors, terrorist groups, treaties and even refugees. These kinds of fractures are hard to see, but they tell a powerful story when you line them up.

Eric Czuleger

Apr 23, 2026

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7 min read

Five Bets Against America

While Washington stares at twenty-one miles of water in the Persian Gulf, five other governments spent the week testing what else they can get away with. The answer, so far, is a lot.

Eric Czuleger

Apr 16, 2026

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7 min read

How Light Gets In

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. This week, it determined whether Irish farmers could fill their tractors, whether American corn gets planted, whether Lebanon gets a ceasefire, and if the US and China sit down or square off. One chokepoint. Five stories, this is just the beginning.

Eric Czuleger

Apr 10, 2026

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15 min read

Dire Straits

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed in spite of the ceasefire. Israel is cutting southern Lebanon off from the rest of the country. Hungary could change the trajectory of the Ukraine war on Sunday. Beijing is making moves on Taiwan while Washington stares at the Gulf. Venezuela's post-Maduro government can't pay its workers. And over a million Sudanese refugees in Chad are about to lose access to food and water. Every one of these stories is connected by a single thread: nobody has the bandwidth to manage any of them well.

Eric Czuleger

Apr 2, 2026

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20 min read

The War of Choice

The Iran War grinds on with global reverberations but the bill hasn't come due, at least not yet. Russia's bluff in Ukraine might pay dividends on the battlefield. Europe takes a dramatic shift to the Indo-Pacific. Cuba receives Russian oil, and UN Peace Keepers are executed in Lebanon.

Eric Czuleger

Mar 11, 2026

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11 min read

The Iceberg Is on Fire

The conflict in Iran is the most visible catastrophe in a world going through a moment of historical crisis. The US is setting up a new transnational organization in South America under the guise of combatting cartels. China plays fast and loose in the South Pacific while the world looks elsewhere. Meanwhile West Africa is overrun by insurgents.

Eric Czuleger

Mar 3, 2026

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12 min read

Iran: What Happens Next

The US just launched an assault on the Islamic Republic. This is likely to be the most significant decision since entrance into the Global War on Terror. The world has just entered a jungle of perverse incentives with few viable off ramps. Here's a map of that territory and what happens next.

Eric Czuleger

Prisoners, Purges, and Fighting in the Arctic

Feb 10, 2026

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8 min read

Prisoners, Purges, and Fighting in the Arctic

From northern Syria to the Sahel, this week’s developments show power being exercised less through open conflict and more through control. A siege in Kobane, security crackdowns in West Africa, military consolidation in China, strategic strain in Europe, and a partial opening in Venezuela all point to the same pattern: stability being managed by throttling risk, information, and movement rather than resolving underlying pressures.

Eric Czuleger

Jan 28, 2026

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8 min read

Wars End, Revolutions Begin

The final phases of conflict are beginning in between Ukraine and Russia while Israel looks to a future Gaza rebuilt by the 'Board of Peace.' Meanwhile China purges top level generals, Iran prepares a swarm of drones for the US fleet, and Europe finally cuts off Russian oil

Eric Czuleger

Revolutions, Civil Wars, and a Fracturing Order

Jan 20, 2026

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8 min read

Revolutions, Civil Wars, and a Fracturing Order

The Kurdish region of the Middle East ignites while world leaders duke it out over a world order shaking a part. The US makes a land grab, Canada seals a deal with China, and Europe counters the US in South America.

Eric Czuleger

Earthquakes, Summits, Street Unrest, Shadow Wars, and the Arctic’s Influence Game

Sep 2, 2025

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9 min read

Earthquakes, Summits, Street Unrest, Shadow Wars, and the Arctic’s Influence Game

From Kabul to Copenhagen, the world is shifting in ways that demand attention. A catastrophic earthquake in Afghanistan leaves thousands dead as aid struggles to reach survivors. China and Russia use a Beijing summit to showcase their deepening alliance. Riots across Indonesia highlight fragile democratic legitimacy in Southeast Asia’s largest state. Somalia sees escalated international counter-terror operations against al-Shabaab. And Denmark confronts Washington over covert U.S. influence efforts in Greenland—revealing how even Arctic politics are becoming a flashpoint.

Eric Czuleger

West Africa Burns, Serbia Clashes, Alliances Tested from Washington to the Pacific

Aug 19, 2025

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11 min read

West Africa Burns, Serbia Clashes, Alliances Tested from Washington to the Pacific

This week’s risk map centers on the Sahel’s hardening stance toward international monitors and a widening arc of violence that now brushes the West African coast, Israel’s mass anti-war protests amid talk of a ceasefire framework, Serbia’s escalating unrest, Europe’s careful positioning after the Trump–Zelensky meetings in Washington, and the Pacific Islands Forum’s members-only summit that sidelines outside powers. Each front carries implications for aid access, sanctions calculus, alliance cohesion, and market sentiment.

Eric Czuleger

Aug 14, 2025

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10 min read

James Bond is Dead

In the digital age, intelligence gathering has shifted from shadowy back alleys to public data streams. From the accidental live-tweeting of the Osama bin Laden raid to fitness apps revealing the locations of secret military bases, open-source intelligence (OSINT) and prediction markets are transforming espionage. Today, crucial information isn’t just in the hands of elite spies — it’s flowing through Telegram channels, social media posts, and crowd-driven platforms that can outpace classified briefings. This deep dive explores how the rise of unorthodox intelligence methods is reshaping global security and what it means for governments, corporations, and everyday sleuths.

Eric Czuleger

Mercenaries, Trade Routes, and Scuttled Ships

Aug 12, 2025

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11 min read

Mercenaries, Trade Routes, and Scuttled Ships

Peace and infrastructure in the Southern Caucasus and a tense U.S.–Russia meeting in Alaska. South American mercenaries in Sudan and a rare Chinese naval mishap in the South China Sea, this week’s developments show power being projected through infrastructure, summitry, and sheer presence on the water. Meanwhile, the Horn of Africa tries to push back insurgents with foreign soldiers and international support.

Eric Czuleger

Aug 7, 2025

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9 min read

Data Centers: Frontline Infrastructure

Data centers are the new frontline for geo-strategic competition. As AI eats electricity and compute demand surges, countries are locking down territory, energy, and incentives to host the infrastructure of intelligence. The result is a global arms race of steel, silicon, and sovereign control. What’s being built now will determine who dominates a digital future.

Eric Czuleger

Aug 5, 2025

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11 min read

New Tariffs, Old Wars, and Rare Earths

We're tracking five under-the-radar geopolitical moves reshaping global power structures. From China’s renewed restrictions on rare-earth magnet exports—choking vital supply chains for EVs and defense tech—to Israel’s escalating raids inside Syria’s fragile southern corridor the world is changing. We also cover the growing EU fracture over Palestinian recognition, with Malta stepping forward and Estonia pushing back, revealing deeper divisions in European diplomacy. On the African front, Djibouti formalizes its military footprint in Somalia. Finally, the U.S. unleashes sweeping tariffs on 68 countries, with Brazil and India facing the hardest hits.

Eric Czuleger

Jul 30, 2025

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11 min read

The New Artillery in Cyber Space

Cyberattacks are now a core component of national security threats. State actors and proxies use them to disrupt infrastructure, undermine trust, and pre-position for conflict. This report analyzes how pro-Ukraine cyber units and China-linked groups like Salt Typhoon have escalated operations against critical systems. From grounding Aeroflot flights in Russia to breaching U.S. telecom networks, these attacks are reshaping global defense posture. Supported by data from Check Point Software, IBM, and U.S. intelligence agencies, the piece outlines how digital attacks are replacing kinetic strikes in gray-zone warfare. It also explains what military and civilian leaders must do to defend the homeland.

Eric Czuleger

China

Jul 29, 2025

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8 min read

Ceasefires and Cyberwar

Five flashpoints define the emerging shape of conflict in 2025: full-blown war between Thailand and Cambodia, state-backed cyberattacks disrupting nuclear and aviation systems, formal moves to recognize Palestinian statehood, a fragile ceasefire in Congo, and Russia’s expanding military footprint in the Sahel. This week’s Under Report breaks down where power is shifting and why it matters.

Eric Czuleger

The Next Middle East Flashpoint: Defending the Druze

Jul 24, 2025

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9 min read

The Next Middle East Flashpoint: Defending the Druze

Israel’s recent airstrike on Syria’s Ministry of Defense in Damascus marked a dramatic escalation in its efforts to protect the Druze minority of Suwayda, whose strategic location along Iran’s land bridge has turned their homeland into a geopolitical flashpoint. With increasing attacks from Bedouin tribes, Sunni extremists, and regime-linked militias, the Druze now find themselves caught between Israeli defense strategies and Iranian proxy ambitions. As Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa shifts Damascus closer to the West, his weak hold over tribal forces and the fragmented army threatens to unravel the fragile order. Ceasefires have been short-lived and may be enabling further conflict. With foreign fighters pouring in and multiple sides preparing for escalation, southern Syria is on the brink of wider war. This conflict is a critical indicator of regional instability and a potential trigger point for broader Middle East confrontation.

Eric Czuleger

This Tiny Syrian Province Could Spark the Next Middle East War

Jul 22, 2025

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11 min read

This Tiny Syrian Province Could Spark the Next Middle East War

This week’s Under Report covers five critical flashpoints flying under the radar. In southern Syria, Israeli airstrikes and Druze–Bedouin clashes in Suwayda threaten to destabilize the Golan Heights and expose Iran’s regional supply line. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority while the nationalist Sanseito party gained ground, reshaping Tokyo’s posture ahead of key U.S. trade talks. In Russia, mass arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg triggered retaliation from Baku and talk of an international lawsuit over a 2024 airliner downing. The U.S. launched a trade investigation into Brazil’s Pix payment system, signaling possible tariffs. And in Mali, the ruling junta signed nuclear and gold deals with Moscow and welcomed Russia’s new Africa Corps. Each of these stories signals a shift in global power that deserves attention now.

Eric Czuleger

This Week’s Hidden Fault Lines: From Kurdistan to the Taiwan Strait

Jul 15, 2025

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10 min read

This Week’s Hidden Fault Lines: From Kurdistan to the Taiwan Strait

From a symbolic Kurdish disarmament in Iraq to Taiwan’s largest-ever war games, this week’s Under Report spotlights five flashpoints reshaping global power dynamics. Turkey may be nearing peace with the PKK after decades of insurgency, while Ethiopia’s mega-dam on the Nile is now complete—igniting new diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Sudan. In East Asia, Taiwan and China conduct dueling military drills, signaling growing risk in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war expands as North Korea pledges troops and Trump issues a 50-day ultimatum. Finally, Somalia’s fragile federal order is tested again as UAE-backed militias battle for coastal control. Each story reveals how local conflicts are now tightly wired into global security architecture.

Eric Czuleger

Jul 11, 2025

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12 min read

Digital Child Soldiers

The minds of teenagers are the latest front in the information war. Russian intelligence grooms Ukrainian minors for sabotage operations. Digital cults spread extremist ideologies on TikTok, Discord, and Twitch. Meanwhile AI-driven sextortion and digital blackmail, are opening a new threat matrix against a vulnerable population. In this week’s Under Report deep dive, we trace how screen saturation, algorithmic targeting, and social engineering could turn the youth into weapons.

Eric Czuleger

Leaked Plans, Laser Wars, and Proxy Power Plays

Jul 9, 2025

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11 min read

Leaked Plans, Laser Wars, and Proxy Power Plays

This week, the global order flexes its edges. A leaked Israeli plan outlines a fenced displacement zone for Gaza’s civilians near Egypt. China used a laser weapon on a German plane over the Red Sea, signaling new tactics. Sudan accuses the UAE of backing genocide. Pakistan expands missile capabilities while bowing to Beijing’s pressure. In Burkina Faso, a young military leader grows a Russian-aligned bloc with social media swagger. From containment zones to proxy wars, the world’s periphery is setting the pace. Power is shifting where most aren’t looking. The Under Report is looking.

Eric Czuleger

Eric Czuleger

Limits of Power

The Cat is Dead

The Dirty Work

Five Bets Against America

How Light Gets In

Dire Straits

The War of Choice

The Iceberg Is on Fire

Iran: What Happens Next

Prisoners, Purges, and Fighting in the Arctic

Wars End, Revolutions Begin

Revolutions, Civil Wars, and a Fracturing Order

Earthquakes, Summits, Street Unrest, Shadow Wars, and the Arctic’s Influence Game

West Africa Burns, Serbia Clashes, Alliances Tested from Washington to the Pacific

James Bond is Dead

Mercenaries, Trade Routes, and Scuttled Ships

Data Centers: Frontline Infrastructure

New Tariffs, Old Wars, and Rare Earths

The New Artillery in Cyber Space

Ceasefires and Cyberwar

The Next Middle East Flashpoint: Defending the Druze

This Tiny Syrian Province Could Spark the Next Middle East War

This Week’s Hidden Fault Lines: From Kurdistan to the Taiwan Strait

Digital Child Soldiers

Leaked Plans, Laser Wars, and Proxy Power Plays

The Under Report by Eric Czuleger

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