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The Under Report
Oliver Buchannon
Eric Czuleger

Author, Journalist, RPCV Graduate of Oxford University and The RAND School of Public Policy. Former Ambassador.

Got Missiles?

Aug 14, 2026

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8 min read

Got Missiles?

The US is running low on everything needed to fight a war from missiles to manpower. North Korea is flexing its muscles based on Russian financing. Haiti's gangs make democracy impossible. Kazakhstan catches strays from Ukraine. And of course, my weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Toll Story 2

Aug 7, 2026

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7 min read

Toll Story 2

Iran and Oman might make the world pay to use the Strait. Will the US be pulled into an unpopular peace or fight a war that can't be won? Hamas might be disarming, but the danger hasn't gone away. China loses sailors in a standoff with the Philippines. Venezuela asks when the democracy is going to happen.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Controlling the Flame

Jul 31, 2026

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7 min read

Controlling the Flame

Two Arab nations join the fight against Iran in the light of day. Ukraine hints at merging two wars into one. Tokyo and Manila join forces against Beijing. The biggest migration into Spain might be a weapon. And Eric's weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
That Shouldn't be on Fire

Jul 24, 2026

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7 min read

That Shouldn't be on Fire

The security umbrella of the United States is wearing thin. The Iran War has gone hot, dragging the entire region into the firing line. Saudi Arabia is looking for a nuclear option of its own. Meanwhile Ukraine sets fire to Russian logistics hubs, and Colombia joins the fight against narco-terrorists. All that and my weekly forecast for subscribers.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Falling Knives

Jul 17, 2026

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7 min read

Falling Knives

Great powers are most dangerous when they're falling. This week we're seeing the principle play out in a strike on a nuclear site and a blockade of a blockade. It's happening as jihadists carve a state out of a new security bloc in West Africa. Meanwhile, China picks an important fight with the Panamanian flag. (Also my weekly prediction).

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The Ceasefire To Nowhere

Jul 10, 2026

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8 min read

The Ceasefire To Nowhere

Iran and the United States are in direct conflict again because the real decision makers aren't at the table. Ukraine enhances its status as arms manufacturers as Russia becomes more dangerous. Rebels in Mali score another downed helicopter. Turkey and Israel rattle their sabers at NATO. And, my weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Price Wars

Jul 3, 2026

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6 min read

Price Wars

This week we're seeing business as a weapon. Sometimes geopolitics is more about who is buying and selling rather than who is killing and dying. Ukraine becomes an arms exporter. China slaps US companies with export controls. North Korea flexes its muscles while urea makes a return trip to pre-war price points.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
We're Wrong About Hezbollah

Jul 1, 2026

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5 min read

We're Wrong About Hezbollah

Dispatch #1 from Southern Lebanon

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Impossible Problems

Jun 27, 2026

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7 min read

Impossible Problems

This week we have an agreement between the US, Lebanon, and Israel that sparked protests in Beirut while the war grinds on. Colombia flips right wing and a quake rocks Venezuela. Ukraine unleashes a huge attack on Russia and the Sahel States open back up to the West. Also, a link to my new podcast and weekly prediction.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Don't Call Them Refugees

Jun 23, 2026

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3 min read

Don't Call Them Refugees

How to talk about the people who are going home again

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
I'm The Boss

Jun 19, 2026

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6 min read

I'm The Boss

Another ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel pits Washington against Tel Aviv. Meanwhile Iran is doing a victory lap while Donald Trump attempts to sell the end of aggression against Iran as a win. North Korea makes waves, The Sahel lights up and my predictions for the coming week.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
"Tomorrow More"

Jun 12, 2026

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7 min read

"Tomorrow More"

This week we're watching a series of trains accelerate towards collision. The Iran War had the breaks on for a couple of months but now its full steam ahead. Ebola destabilizes The Democratic Republic of the Congo while exposing fractures in Kenya. Albanian protests seek shuffle leadership while Kim and Xi meet for tea.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Sazan Documents: Publishing the Tender and the Masterplan in Full

Jun 9, 2026

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4 min read

Sazan Documents: Publishing the Tender and the Masterplan in Full

What they are and why I am publishing them

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
It's Not About the Flamingos

Jun 5, 2026

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6 min read

It's Not About the Flamingos

This week the war between Iran and the United States hinges on the question of Lebanon. Meanwhile, China flexes its muscles in the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific. Bolivia is bending to its breaking point while Europe builds immigration centers that it once derided. In my own backyard protests grip Albania as a shady deal takes public land.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
What Ceasefire?

May 29, 2026

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7 min read

What Ceasefire?

The ceasefire exists now in name only. Israel and Lebanon are in pitched battle, while the US has returned to striking targets in Iran. Meanwhile the effects are being felt in Bolivia as workers unite against the government. Sudan's civil war hardens while Syrian political power takes over Kurdish controlled areas.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Frankenstein Doctrine

May 21, 2026

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6 min read

Frankenstein Doctrine

Conflicts always seem two sided but that's an illusion that makes monsters. The world is full of unseen consequences playing out before our eyes. This week we have a move to police Cuba with military precision, an entry into the killing season between Ukraine and Russia, dueling summits in China, and a virus slowly making its way through Africa.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Limits of Power

May 14, 2026

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6 min read

Limits of Power

US power is straining while President Trump goes to China. Meanwhile a new virus is having some curious policy effects. Russia moves towards a deal with Ukraine while cozying up to North Korea and Europe is moving to a war footing.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The Cat is Dead

May 7, 2026

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7 min read

The Cat is Dead

Foreign policy is hitting the hard wall of reality all over the world. Saudi shuts its airspace to a US operation. China and Japan dictate terms in a round of upcoming meetings. Somalia descends into violence as we see who controls the Horn of Africa. It's time to open Schrödinger's box and find out which reality is undeniable.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The Dirty Work

Apr 30, 2026

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11 min read

The Dirty Work

Power is leaping over borders and the only people looking at the map are the ones stuck in the past. This week states are projecting power through private contractors, terrorist groups, treaties and even refugees. These kinds of fractures are hard to see, but they tell a powerful story when you line them up.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Five Bets Against America

Apr 23, 2026

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7 min read

Five Bets Against America

While Washington stares at twenty-one miles of water in the Persian Gulf, five other governments spent the week testing what else they can get away with. The answer, so far, is a lot.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
How Light Gets In

Apr 16, 2026

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7 min read

How Light Gets In

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. This week, it determined whether Irish farmers could fill their tractors, whether American corn gets planted, whether Lebanon gets a ceasefire, and if the US and China sit down or square off. One chokepoint. Five stories, this is just the beginning.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Dire Straits

Apr 10, 2026

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15 min read

Dire Straits

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed in spite of the ceasefire. Israel is cutting southern Lebanon off from the rest of the country. Hungary could change the trajectory of the Ukraine war on Sunday. Beijing is making moves on Taiwan while Washington stares at the Gulf. Venezuela's post-Maduro government can't pay its workers. And over a million Sudanese refugees in Chad are about to lose access to food and water. Every one of these stories is connected by a single thread: nobody has the bandwidth to manage any of them well.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The War of Choice

Apr 2, 2026

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20 min read

The War of Choice

The Iran War grinds on with global reverberations but the bill hasn't come due, at least not yet. Russia's bluff in Ukraine might pay dividends on the battlefield. Europe takes a dramatic shift to the Indo-Pacific. Cuba receives Russian oil, and UN Peace Keepers are executed in Lebanon.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
The Iceberg Is on Fire

Mar 11, 2026

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11 min read

The Iceberg Is on Fire

The conflict in Iran is the most visible catastrophe in a world going through a moment of historical crisis. The US is setting up a new transnational organization in South America under the guise of combatting cartels. China plays fast and loose in the South Pacific while the world looks elsewhere. Meanwhile West Africa is overrun by insurgents.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Iran: What Happens Next

Mar 3, 2026

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12 min read

Iran: What Happens Next

The US just launched an assault on the Islamic Republic. This is likely to be the most significant decision since entrance into the Global War on Terror. The world has just entered a jungle of perverse incentives with few viable off ramps. Here's a map of that territory and what happens next.

Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
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The Under Report by Eric Czuleger

Your weekly intel report about the movements that don't make headlines.


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