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Hey everybody,

The price of oil is going up. The cost of being a US ally is also rising. Those lines are going in the wrong direction. Here's a sneak peak at my forthcoming forecast The Next 90 Days (coming soon for subscribers).

The war in Iran is entering a period of rapid escalation. This is where we will see the hard limits of US power. Certain things are possible and certain things aren't. The US cannot destroy the nuclear facility in Pickaxe Mountain even with a nuclear bomb. It can send troops into the borders of Iran. It can attempt to gain political change through air strikes. Both of those options will end poorly.

Here's the question we need to answer: What would look like enough of a win to become an off ramp?

I genuinely don't know at this point. What do you think? (You can write me back).

Let's get to it,

Eric

P.S. The Next 90 Days, will be sent to ALL subscribers. In the future, it will only go to paid supporters. Very much looking forward to sharing this comprehensive look at the near future with you.

What Happened

The MOU is six feet under.

CENTCOM completed a thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian command centers, drone storage, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets. Its blockade has redirected 12 commercial vessels and disabled one in nine days. Iran has hit targets in Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar, and 18 American service members have died since February. Then the second strait opened. Yemen's Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb and said they hit two Saudi tankers. Brent crossed $100, up about 40 percent this month. Two energy corridors are being choked.

Why It Matters

Gulf crude loadings have fallen to about 2.5 million barrels per day, against 6 million a month ago, and Iraq has shut in most of its fields as storage is filled. All this means, oil exports go down, price goes up. What's worse is that the world is depending on oil leaking through two choke points.

Iran's decisive weapon is the ability to keep Hormuz shut, but now we're seeing the force multiplier, using the Houthis to cut off the Red Sea. This is unsustainable and the market knows it. Keep your car full of gas.

What We're Watching For

What Happened

Saudi had a great day that lasted for 18 hours.

On Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and his Saudi counterpart signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that could open a path for Saudi domestic enrichment. It also exempts the kingdom from the IAEA's Additional Protocol inspection standard. Then the US snuck in new terms.

Thursday morning, Trump posted that the deal "is totally subject" to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and wrote. Riyadh has said nothing. Meanwhile the kingdom's southern truce collapsed.

Why It Matters

Riyadh's stated price for normalization with Israel has been a pathway to a Palestinian State. This is not something that Israel can readily offer particularly given the fact that Gaza is still retains military control of Gaza and there are outstanding questions about the West Bank. Moreover, it would read as weakness domestically in the run up to elections.

But, Saudi Arabia might bend instead.

The thing about gaining nuclear capabilities is that it allows you to rewrite the rules of any agreement you previously signed. Also, Riyadh is interested in establishing deterrence in the face of a potentially ascendent Iran. The path to get there might lead through the Abraham Accords.

With tankers burning in the Red Sea the margin for error is razor thin and the clock is ticking for a big decision to be made.

What We're Watching For

What Happened

Lots of things are on fire. Ukraine's government, and Russia's online retailer.

Zelensky announced a reset on July 12, parliament dismissed Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko after one year in office, and the firing of defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov put protesters on the streets. The strikes did not pause. Over seven days Ukraine hit Wildberries, Russia's largest online marketplace, three times across four regions. Zelensky says the warehouses supplied drone components, a claim with no public confirmation, which we flag. Ukraine's drone commander was more candid: the strikes target "the illusion of a comfortable peacetime existence."

Why It Matters

Ukraine is making it hurt the average Russian. Putin has been able to insulate his core supporters from the effects of the war up until the last couple of months. Now, there is a gasoline shortage and people aren't able to order packages online. Moreover, many small businesses who ship through Wildberries just had their stock incinerated. This is a strategy that Russia must respond to through escalation and it makes the conflict much more dangerous.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's battlefield successes are backgrounded by constant political shakeups, this is a strange story which is hard to read as either preventative measures against Russian influence or an anti-corruption push to appease EU backers. These kind of things are near impossible to read from the outside.

What We're Watching For