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Hey Everyone,
Getting back in the saddle after a couple of weeks off. Lots happening right now (as always). Here's the main focal point. When something keeps happening you've got to look for the mechanism and not at the event itself.
Another ceasefire is off? The beginnings of a new Middle Eastern conflict? Power projection into South America? The reason this keeps happening is because the conditions haven't changed, but the people have.
Keep this in mind when you read through the next couple stories.
Let's get to it,
Eric
P.S. A big thank you to my subscribers, it's because of you that I can do reporting on the ground. If you like the videos, podcast, and newsletter, please do consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The US and Iran are bombing each other again. (We called this, we're not happy about it). The two-month ceasefire finished after Iran hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Washington answered with strikes and renewed oil sanctions.
Trump dangled F-35s and sanctions relief in front of Turkey. This is a battle for the future of air supremacy in the Middle East and potentially a new flashpoint.
Ukraine won a license to build its own Patriot missiles at the NATO summit, but the interceptors it needs now are being pulled toward the Gulf while Russia's ground war stalls.
Colombia's outgoing president won't recognize his elected successor, freezing the handover a month early. This could lead to a crisis if it's not ironed out.
Rebels downed another Russian helicopter in northern Mali, the second this year, as a Tuareg-jihadist alliance besieges one of the junta's last northern strongholds.
Bombs over Iran (Again)
What happened. The Under Report has been stating for months that ceasefire is just a thing to say during this conflict. After Iran fired on three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, the US launched its heaviest strikes since the truce, with CENTCOM claiming roughly 80 targets one night and 90 the next, and Washington reimposed the oil sanctions it had lifted for sixty days. Trump declared the deal over from the NATO summit in Ankara. Iran answered by striking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and a US-used airbase in Jordan.
Why it matters. You cannot bomb a waterway into compliance. If that was possible the US would have done that already. However, control over the Strait gives Iran the bargaining power of a nuclear nation without ever needing the bomb. Here's the other big problem: The real negotiators aren't at the tables that matter. The Iranian president signs the MOU, but the IRGC ignores it. The Lebanese government signs a deal ceding territory to Israel, but Hezbollah is left out. So long as the real power is left out of the discussions we'll keep seeing these headlines again and again.
What we're looking for.
The likely path is a ceasefire that stays dead but flickering, with more strikes and more retaliation and no decisive blow, because there is no clean military end to a fight over a chokepoint.
Any sort of revisiting of the deal regarding southern Lebanon and a pull back of Israeli forces, this is unlikely but it would act as a sweetener.
New conditions replacing the MOU. The Under Report stated previously that the conditions were untenable domestically and internationally, so if the US can sue for a better bargain and Iran is willing, we might have some movement.
(NOTE: The Under Report encourages readers to, under no circumstances, hold their breath for an end to this conflict).
Turkey and Israel Consider Locking Horns
What happened. At the Ankara summit Trump said he would "certainly consider" selling F-35s to Turkey and announced he would lift Turkish sanctions. Turkish officials say they are seeking an initial batch of six jets if the ban falls. Netanyahu objected directly, warning the sale would break the regional balance, while the jets stay walled off by Turkey's ownership of the Russian S-400 system. Separately, Israel's cabinet approved a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide, a step that still needs a Knesset vote nobody has scheduled.
Why it matters. Read the verbs. "Consider" is not "sell," and the F-35 sits behind a legal wall that has held for seven years. The event that actually matters is the smaller one, a roughly 700 million dollar deal for General Electric engines to power Turkey's homegrown KAAN fighter, because engines do not carry the same legal freight as jets. That deal turns Turkey from an operator of other people's fifth-generation aircraft into a builder of its own, and Israel's air monopoly suddenly has a clock on it regardless of whether a single F-35 ever ships.
The other bit I want to point out here is the Israeli recognition of the Armenian Genocide. This is a diplomatic thumb in the eye of Turkey, who committed but does not recognize the genocide. All of this smacks of breadcrumbing an oncoming conflict between Turkey and Israel.
What we're looking for.
Turkey and Israel are not going to fight each other. They are going to collide in post-Assad Syria. Israel has chosen its populations to make a stand, the Druze in Southern Syria, and the Kurds in the North. Meanwhile, Al-Sharaa will have to manage the conflict between two heavily armed states fighting through proxy groups.
Watch whether the Knesset vote on the genocide resolution ever gets a date. If it expires as parliament heads for recess then it was likely solved behind closed doors.
Track the KAAN engine program, not just the jets, because that is where Israel's real loss of its air monopoly actually happens.
Ukraine's Patriot Act
What happened. Trump told Zelensky the US will license Ukraine to build its own Patriot interceptors. This is a huge reversal which shows how badly the US needs new interceptors. The summit declaration also pledged 70 billion euros in military aid for 2026. On the ground the picture is starker. Russia's net territorial gain for the first half of 2026 was just 97 square kilometers, according to the Institute for the Study of War, while Ukraine flew its deepest drone strike of the war against Russia's largest oil refinery, more than 2,500 kilometers from the border.
Why it matters. The Patriot license is political cover more than military reality, because Patriots are slow and expensive to build, and Congress's own research service has flagged that US operations against Iran are already creating interceptor shortages that reach Ukraine. So the license lets Washington say it is helping while the interceptors that exist today get reserved for the Gulf. Meanwhile 97 square kilometers in six months is not an advance. This makes Russia quite dangerous since it may be forced into more belligerent moves to make gains.
What we're looking for.
A stalled army escalates sideways. Expect more of Russia's gray-zone menu against NATO soil, drones over airbases, cut cables, sabotage, rather than a breakthrough on the line.
Watch the two oil wars converge, because Ukraine is hammering Russian refineries at exactly the moment Hormuz spikes crude, which maximizes Moscow's revenue pain while prices are high.
The warm Zelensky meeting and Trump saying he is "closer than people realize" point to a rushed, freeze-the-lines settlement by year end, with home-built weapons as the sweetener that lets Zelensky sell a hard map to his own public.
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