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Hey Everybody,
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intel brief on the stories that move the world without making headlines.
We've got some new readers off the back of my reporting on the ground in Albania and I'm thrilled to write for you all. Welcome.
As many readers know I'm going to be continuing my field reporting in Lebanon next week. Due to the donations from my readers and viewers I am able to qualified fixers and personal protective equipment while in an active war zone. Thank you.
The goal of my reporting in Lebanon is similar to my work in Albania. I want to find the gap between what is reported in legacy news and the reality on the ground. No one can fire or censor me because I work for you, my readers.
Best,
Eric
P.S. If you would like to support my work in Lebanon I'm accepting donations of all sizes (honestly 5 dollars goes a long way in a conflict zone) through Venmo.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The Iran war is back on but no one wants to call it that. A two-month lull broke overnight into the worst Israel-Iran exchange since spring. Meanwhile the US threatened invasion only to pull it back again.
Albania's streets have decided Edi Rama should go. Twelve straight days of protest over a Trump-Kushner coastal resort have turned into a national referendum on the man who has run the country for twelve years
Xi went to Pyongyang and the interesting part is what Kim left out. The first Xi-Kim summit on North Korean soil since 2019 produced warm words, one telling omission, and a clear signal about which way the wind is blowing in Northeast Asia.
Ebola exposes cracks in Kenya. The Ebola virus broke out of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its now destabilizing other African nations.
The US Sanctions a War it said was over. Donald Trump may have claimed to end the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but Washington is applying financial pressure to the leaders.
1. The War Came Back at Night
Here is a test. If two countries fire missiles and drones at each other while claiming to be in a ceasefire, are they at war?
What Happened: Israel and Iran traded their heaviest fire in months, then both stood down. Iran announced it was suspending operations but warned it would resume if Israel kept hitting southern Lebanon. Israel's prime minister said attacks were halted but would not acknowledge a ceasefire, and the US president had to phone him to call off a planned strike on Tehran. Meanwhile, the US has resumed a full-scale bombing campaign, threatened taking Kharg Island, then decided not to. If you're confused you're certainly not alone.
(Answer: Yes they're at war)
Why It Matters: This is the war that began February 28 with a joint US-Israel strike, and the April truce was always more pause than peace. The trigger this time was (as predicted by The Under Report) Lebanon. Tehran has tied its restraint to Israel stopping operations there. A ceasefire that depends on a second front staying quiet is not a ceasefire. As long as fighting continues in Lebanon, no progress will be made in Iran.
What We're Watching For:
If the Qatar-mediated talks survive the next provocation or collapse into open war again
If talks between Israel and Lebanon on the 22nd of June lead to an agreement which includes Hezbollah
Actions from the Israelis which indicate a withdrawal of forces
2. Albania Is Not For Sale
What Happened: Crowds marched on the prime minister's office demanding the government's resignation. I can tell you from being on the ground, the protests get bigger every night. The spark is a four billion euro coastal development linked to Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump on the Adriatic. On June 2, Albania's Special Anti-Corruption Structure opened a preliminary investigation into how the coastal land titles were transferred to private hands. While the government has repeatedly stated there is no project, documents leaked by The Under Report, state otherwise.
Why It Matters: Rama has called the protests a foreign "hybrid war" and at one point blamed Iran. Ignore all of that. The observable facts are an indictment-grade corruption probe, twelve days of growing crowds, and a land deal tied to the US president's family being processed through a closed door. It is hard to sell yourself as a clean candidate while your anti-corruption agency is investigating your signature project. The real question here is this:
Can the movement be stopped by binning the deal or are their cries for sweeping governmental change the only antidote?
What We're Watching For:
Whether the crowds peak and fade or grow large enough to force the government out
If the government makes a smaller deal like stopping the project in order to stay in power
Who will take the political mantle of the movement. (Protestors are calling for both sides to step down from power… So who do they want?)
3. What Kim Didn't Say
What Happened: Xi and Kim met for two days, timed to the 65th anniversary of their 1961 mutual defense treaty, the only formal military alliance China has. Per the official readouts, they agreed to strengthen coordination, Xi offered to expand cooperation in trade, agriculture, construction and technology, and Kim reaffirmed support for Beijing's one-China position on Taiwan. All of that is normal stuff, but something is missing.
Why It Matters: If you look at the reporting between the two countries, there's a big gap. North Korea's account used warmer alignment language than at their last meeting in September, but it left out Xi's proposal to deepen military cooperation. When two capitals describe the same meeting differently we should pay attention to the omission. Pyongyang took the economic embrace and kept its security options open. That tracks with Kim's deepening ties to Moscow, where he has a 2024 defense pact and soldiers reportedly fighting in Ukraine.
An encroaching multi-polar world gives smaller military powers oversized clout. The Russia, China, North Korean relationship will become very important in the future.
What We're Watching For:
Whether Beijing can pull North Korea back from Russia's orbit or loses the tug-of-war with Moscow
Whether the omitted military-cooperation line resurfaces in any concrete defense agreement
Whether Xi's timing signals a wider bloc consolidation while Washington is consumed by the Iran war
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here’s what full subscriptions are reading this week:
“If It's Too Dangerous for America, It's Too Dangerous for Kenya”
“The Minerals Don't Sanction Themselves”
Eric’s Tinfoil Hat prediction 👀
Why Eric chose this week’s podcast topic.
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