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Bottom Line Up Front
Iran and Oman drew a new map for the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed corridor runs in part through Iranian waters for the first time in decades, and reopening still hangs on Washington lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.
Netanyahu answered the Gaza disarmament deal with four days of silence. His ministers now want the security cabinet to bar the international force his own government approved in framework form last week.
North Korea is moving a missile unit into a Russian brigade. Kyiv's spy agency says 90 personnel and up to 120 ballistic missiles are bound for Voronezh, the same week a barrage killed 17 people around the Ukrainian capital.
China entered its Scarborough dead into the martyr registry. Beijing confirmed for the first time that two coast guard officers died while chasing a Philippine ship in August 2025.
Venezuela's government and opposition sat down, and Washington set the table. Working groups convene in Caracas this week with María Corina Machado outside the room.
Hey Everybody
This week is all about the negotiation table.
Bargaining is a funny thing. You have to find out what is important to the opposition without exposing what you value. Everything gets repriced when new information shows up.
The US is dangerously low on missiles? Might be time to talk again. China loses sailors in gray zone warfare? Better make them martyrs. All power comes from controlling the surplus. If you have a surplus of information when you walk into a negotiation, its likely you're going to walk out with the better deal.
Let's see how negotiations played out this week.
P.S.
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1. Iran's Phantom Tollbooth
What Happened
Iran and Oman agreed on the coordinates of a proposed shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz with a joint statement in final drafting. Iranian officials say parts of the new inbound and outbound routes will run through Iranian waters with a joint coordination center to manage traffic and an initial run of two to four months. Though it won't require tolls, there will be a service fee.
This is a break from the previous system and it empowers Iran. Tehran's condition is that nothing reopens until Washington lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile the pressure is on in the Red Sea. Houthi fighters claimed an attack on a Saudi ships and Saudi-backed ground forces. The initiative is on the US to raise the blockade.
Why It Matters
Last week I told you the Hormuz deal was dead. I certainly didn't foresee a NEW deal rising to take its place. Theres a difference between this one and the Islamabad MOU. The June memorandum bound Iran to safe passage "with no charge for 60 days only," then to talks on the "future administration and maritime services" of the strait.
If this deal goes through then Iran's influence will be cemented into the trade infrastructure of the world. There's a danger here though. If Iran overplays its hand then the world could build around the strait entirely. Either way, the clock is ticking and Iran stands to benefit if it can last. About 15 million barrels of crude sit out of the market each day, and Aramco's chief executive says refilling depleted inventories could take 18 months after reopening.
What We're Watching For
Whether the Iran and Oman joint statement publishes fee, insurance, or coordination language.
if a commercial convoy transits the corridor under new rules.
Also, this goes without saying… Does Washington lift the blockade?
Note from Eric: If you like The Under Report, make sure to share it or become one of our paid subscribers.
2. The Pocket Veto
What Happened
Netanyahu has said nothing in public about Hamas disarming. That's a pretty important communication gap. While the IDF was supposed to pull back airstrikes killed 28 people in Gaza. Nickolay Mladenov, chief envoy of Trump's Board of Peace, rebuked the strikes for undermining the framework and flew to Israel on Monday with senior US adviser Aryeh Lightstone. The same day, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Settlements Minister Orit Strouk sent Netanyahu a formal letter demanding that he block the international stabilization force from entering Gaza. The cabinet had approved the force's legal framework days earlier, with entry of personnel still requiring sign off from Netanyahu and two senior ministers.
Why It Matters
Israel votes in October and Netanyahu needs a win to run on. Handing control of the region over to the International Stabilization Force and the Board of Peace doesn't shower him with glory since it abdicates a position. Its likely that Netanyahu will keep his silence until after the election and slow roll the transfer of power in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the US is actively pressuring Israel to move forward with an endgame. It’s politically costly and the relationship between the two countries is wearing thin. The issue has to find a way to closure but leadership hopes the bill will come due after they're voted in for another term.
What We're Watching For
Whether Netanyahu convenes the security cabinet on the Smotrich letter or leaves it unanswered through the week.
If any stabilization force personnel enter the pilot zone before September.
Does the Board of Peace start to take a lead role in public?
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:
"North Korea to the Rescue?"
"Making Martyrs"
“Is Venezuela America?”
Eric's Tinfoil Hat prediction 👀
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