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Hey everybody,

I need your help.

In the next couple weeks I will be reporting in Lebanon alongside 6 time Emmy-Award winning director Joe Hill (VICE/HBO). The conflict in the country has been woefully under reported and we're trying to change that by shooting a series of short documentaries.

We're not there to play violins or point cameras at bombed buildings.

We want to tell human stories about global events. We're following Shia refugees as they attempt to find a new home. Visiting a city of trucks frozen at the border of Syria and Lebanon. We're meeting artists and comedians in Beirut attempting to keep the spirit of the country alive in this "new reality.”

We're producing this independently.

Operating without corporate oversight is rare in the world of conflict journalism. We have the expertise and access to do it. Security doesn't come cheap in war zones so your donations go a long way to keep us safe and to tell a story which would otherwise be silenced.

Now onto the newsletter,

Eric

P.S. Donate to "The New Reality” Shoot here. All of your donations are tax deductible

Bottom Line Up Front:

What Happened: On May 11, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE secretly struck Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery in early April using Mirage 2000s, knocking out most of its capacity for months. Remember, Lavan was constructed because Kharg island was seen as a military target. Less than 24 hours later Saudi Arabia carried out its own unannounced strikes on Iranian soil in late March. This is first time the Kingdom has directly hit Iran. After the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, Islamabad deployed 13,000 troops and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under their September 2025 mutual defense pact. Looks like the GCC is digging in, not breaking up.

Why It Matters: For decades the Gulf monarchies operated under an implicit deal: they hosted the bases, the US provided the muscle. That just changed. Both states absorbed thousands of Iranian missiles and drones, decided the American umbrella was not enough, and built their own offensive capability. Pakistan stepped in as nuclear-armed backstop. The Abraham Accords grew teeth, but for how long?

What We're Watching For: Whether Riyadh or Abu Dhabi formally acknowledge the strikes, how Iran reconstitutes deterrence, and whether Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar follow. (Also, Colombian mercenaries… the UAE tends to use them for everything).

What Happened: Russia held a deeply scaled-back Victory Day parade on May 9, with no tanks rolling through Red Square for the first time in nearly two decades. North Korean troops marched alongside Russian formations. Moscow had unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire May 8 through 11. At his briefing, Putin said the conflict "is heading towards the end" and that he would meet Zelensky anywhere, but only as a "signing ceremony" once an agreement was ready.

Why It Matters: Two relationship shifts in one weekend. North Korea is now publicly, formally a co-combatant in Russia's war. And the Kremlin has moved from "until victory" to "heading towards the end." Putin's framing puts the burden on Kyiv: he will meet to sign, not negotiate. Whether "end" means surrender, freeze, or face-saving stalemate is the next chapter.

What We're Watching For: A reportedly imminent Putin state visit to China (after Trump!), what concessions Trump pushes Kyiv to accept, and how a formal Russia-DPRK alliance reshapes the Korean Peninsula.

From Eric: Like the Under Report? Send it to a friend to support the report.

What Happened: Trump and business leaders arrived in China on May 13 for a three-day state visit and met Xi at the Great Hall of the People the next morning, the first US presidential visit in nearly nine years. Xi opened by asking whether the US and China could avoid the "Thucydides Trap," a reference to an inevitable war between a rising power and a declining power. The day before, the Chinese Embassy posted "four red lines" that "must not be challenged": Taiwan, democracy and human rights, paths and political systems, and development rights.

Why It Matters: China is hosting Trump as a peer. The Thucydides Trap reference is not subtle: Xi is asking, on camera, whether the US is willing to share the future or fight for it. The Iran war has weakened Trump's hand and Beijing knows it. Trump wants to find a way to step down from the trade war and the Iran conflict while gaining access to the Chinese markets for business leaders. China wants to expand its global foothold and capitalize on US weakness.

What We're Watching For: The eventual US readout (sessions were closed-door), any joint statement on Taiwan, indium and chip export controls, and whether Trump gets Xi to lean on Tehran.