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Hey everyone,

Welcome back to The Under Report.

As you might know, I'm preparing to shoot a documentary in Lebanon towards the end of June. I want you to know why ground-level experience is critical.

A year ago I was at a national security cocktail party (much less fun than it sounds). I was listening to a junior researcher discuss Lebanon with the bravado that comes from being young, fascinated, and wanting to sound impressive. I've certainly been there before myself. I could see how he came to all of his conclusions but unfortunately the details were all wrong.

He'd learned from reports read in air conditioned government offices. These rarely map to reality.

An afternoon spent in Beirut would have taught him what stacks of scholarly papers never could. He would have felt the intricacies of the power relationships, smelled generators kicking on as power cut off, heard what people are talking about and understood what they left unsaid.

Most importantly, he would have remembered that we are talking about human beings. National security is not a word problem to be solved with statistics and literature reviews. It's a duty to preserve human life through understanding. Spending time on the ground reminds us of who this work is for.

Let's get to it,

Eric

P.S. If you would like to support our shoot in Lebanon donate here. Your contribution keeps us safe and helps us tell stories that move the world without making headlines.

P.P.S If you're a paid subscriber (THANK YOU) You'll be getting something extra from me in the next couple days.

Bottom Line Up Front:

What Happened. US forces shot down four Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck a ground-control station at Bandar Abbas on Wednesday, and the IRGC says it hit the airbase it blamed for the strike. Then the table turned. On Thursday the White House confirmed negotiators had agreed on a memorandum of understanding that extends the ceasefire 60 days and opens talks on Iran's nuclear program. The catch is the signature: Trump has not signed and reportedly wants days to decide, and Tehran has not publicly confirmed. Washington still insists the early-April ceasefire holds and calls its strikes self-defense even as it blockades Iranian ports. Epic Fury is officially over, but the Pentagon holds "Operation Sledgehammer" in reserve if the president restarts major combat. Israel, meanwhile, ordered Tyre's 200,000 residents to flee and began bombing two hours later, pushing past the yellow line. The Lebanon toll is now past 3,000 since March.

Why It Matters. This is no longer a contest of firepower but of political endurance, CSIS argues, each side blockading the other across a waterway that carries a quarter of the world's seaborne oil. The MOU buys 60 days and a path to nuclear talks, but it leaves enrichment for later and sits unsigned, a framework rather than a finish line. A deal that satisfies Washington on shipping and nuclear work may not satisfy Israel, which wants Iran's missiles and proxies gone. And the geography is the point: Israel runs hot in Lebanon because the one referee is busy in the Gulf. Iran's forward defense has boomeranged into the war it spent decades trying to avoid.

What We're Watching For.

What Happened. An explosive-laden Russian Geran-2 drone crashed into a ten-story apartment block in Galați, Romania early Friday, detonating on the roof and injuring two as Moscow pounded Ukrainian ports across the Danube. It was the first strike to hit a populated area and wound civilians on Romanian soil, the 28th airspace breach since Russia began hammering the Danube ports. Romanian F-16s scrambled with authorization to fire but held off; the drone was over NATO territory for four minutes. Bucharest summoned the Russian ambassador and pressed NATO to speed anti-drone transfers, and von der Leyen said Russia had crossed "yet another line." The hit came days after she flew to Vilnius to demand a NATO-wide counter-drone overhaul, prompted by Baltic incursions she confirmed were Ukrainian drones knocked astray by Russian jamming, not Russian. Whoever launches them, the flank keeps getting hit.

Why It Matters. The front has barely moved, with Ukraine clawing back a couple hundred square kilometers in a month, so Kyiv shifted to deep strikes on Russian energy and Moscow answered by pounding the ports on NATO's doorstep. The overspill now draws blood on alliance soil. With US-brokered talks stalled while Washington is consumed by Iran, Europe is being forced to self-insure, and a burning stairwell in Galați is what the coverage gap looks like. The danger was never a deliberate Russian assault on NATO. It is an accidental one that politics can no longer wave away once civilians are hurt.

What We're Watching For.

What Happened. President Rodrigo Paz signed a decree this week authorizing the military to deploy on the streets after nearly a month of roadblocks. The blockades, led by the COB union, miners, and peasant federations, have emptied La Paz of food and drained hospital oxygen, and at least four people have died. A salary-cut offer from Paz failed to clear the streets, and Evo Morales is demanding elections within 90 days.

Why It Matters. This is what a currency and fuel crisis does to a government with no majority. The trigger was Paz ending a 20-year fuel subsidy the state could no longer afford, and the Iran-driven energy shock made imported fuel dearer still. Inflation runs near 15 percent, the worst in four decades. Soldiers can clear a road, but they cannot refill a treasury.

What We're Watching For.