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Hey Everyone,
It's midnight.
I'm sitting in the Athens airport with $3,000 cash in my pocket.
The reason is that I am on my way to Lebanon to cover the hot war between Hezbollah and Israel. The cash is for my fixers and general survival since the banking system in Lebanon has collapsed. I'm doing this because while I've heard plenty of mentions of Hezbollah in the news I have read next to nothing about the Lebanese people.
Too often we turn geopolitics into word problems and sports. It's a blind spot when we root for a side without ever understanding the consequences of winning. It's a catastrophe when we can reduce a population of millions down to a collection of unfortunate targets. It's immoral to make declarations about the fate of nations without ever knowing their point of view.
I don't know what I will get from this week. Air strikes might contain my movements to Beirut or I might be able to watch as thousands move to rebuild their lives. All I can be certain of is that I will come back understanding more than reading an article in a war journal could ever teach me.
Let's get into it,
Eric
P.S. I've UNLOCKED this issue so everyone will be able to read the FULL UNDER REPORT.
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Bottom Line Up Front
A Lebanon ceasefire arrived the same day Israeli strikes killed dozens. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt fire Friday after an escalation that postponed the US-Iran talks.
Trump's Iran memo is getting shredded by his own party. Republican hawks and Israeli ministers are revolting over a $300 billion fund and a reopened Strait of Hormuz.
Russia may be faking the fall of a city it hasn't taken. ISW says Kremlin channels are circulating likely AI-generated flag videos while the railway station stays Ukrainian.
Gunmen stormed Niamey's airport for the second time this year. An al-Qaeda affiliate hit one of Niger's most strategic military sites, killing 11 soldiers and two civilians.
North Korea wrote its nuclear status into the constitution days after Xi visited. Pyongyang is locking in a posture, and Beijing just signaled it can live with it.
1. The ceasefire that needed a war to arrive
What Happened
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire Friday after a rapid escalation which left hundreds wounded and killed at least 47 people per the Lebanese Health Ministry. The flare-up postponed the US-Iran talks in Switzerland, with JD Vance canceling his trip. This is a particularly dangerous time for Lebanon due to the fact that many of the internally displaced people (around 1.2 million) took the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran as a green light to return to their homes in Southern Lebanon leaving hundreds in the crossfire.
Why It Matters
Ceasefire is just a word people say. This is roughly the fourth Washington-announced Lebanon de-escalation since April and airstrikes have never once stopped. Israel still occupies about 20% of Lebanon and wants to maintain those territorial gains. Meanwhile the MOU between Washington and Tehran includes a withdrawal of Israeli forces, even though they never agreed to that. Territorial integrity of Lebanon and not the Strait of Hormuz is the final fight in this war between Iran, the US, Israel, and Lebanon.
What We're Watching For
Whether either side issues formal confirmation, or whether this stays a US-sourced announcement both parties can walk back
Whether the Switzerland talks reconvene or the postponement hardens into collapse
Whether Israeli "self-defense" strikes resume within days, as after the June 1 and April truces
2. Trump signed a deal his own party is calling a surrender
What Happened
The memo signed Wednesday commits both sides to a permanent end to operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Tehran agreed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz (for 60 days), while Washington pledged a plan for $300 billion in reconstruction funds. Senator Bill Cassidy called it the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. Ted Cruz said Trump was getting bad advice. Senators Tom Cotton and Roger Wicker hit the sanctions relief and the fund. Trump insists the money will not come from US taxpayers and called the deal Iran's unconditional surrender.
Why It Matters
Normally I don't cover domestic news because I find it tiresome and annoying. However, Donald Trump's inability to sell an end to the war in Iran as a win puts the world in danger and exposes weaknesses amongst allies. Vice President Vance openly attacked Israeli critics after minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urged Israel to defy the pullout requirement. The substantive complaint is consistent across the aisle. The deal lifts sanctions and hands Tehran a lifeline while leaving its enriched uranium parked in future talks. Iran keeps the uranium and the leverage. Washington keeps the bill and the blowback.
This cannot and will not hold.
What We're Watching For
More tough talk about returning to conflict regardless of what the MOU says
Whether congressional Republicans move from rhetoric to a vote constraining the reconstruction fund
Whether Israel formally defies the withdrawal clause, turning grumbling into an open break
3. Russia is fighting the next battle with a video editor
What Happened
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the capture of Dovha Balka near Kostiantynivka as channels circulated June 15 videos of troops displaying flags. ISW assessed the videos may have been AI-generated, consistent with prior Kremlin campaigns. On the ground, two tactical groups pushed into the city but failed to seize the railway station, and Ukraine cleared infiltrators from Dovha Balka. Russia has entered roughly 12.69% of the city since October and missed its May deadline to take it.
Why It Matters
Kostiantynivka is the main objective of Russia's spring-summer campaign, the gateway to the Donetsk fortress belt. But the campaign started in August 2025, the neighboring Toretsk fight alone cost roughly 26,000 casualties, and after nearly a year Moscow holds about an eighth of one city. When you manufacture the victory video before the victory, the battlefield is not delivering. Russia has been moving at a snails pace to make gains in this conflict while Ukraine continues to punch above its weight class.
What We're Watching For
Can Russia actually seize the Kostiantynivka railway station, or just make videos about it?
Whether the AI-video tactic spreads to other contested towns as deliberate strategy
If Western capitals price the fake-capture narrative into pressure for a settlement
4. The most Valuable Airport in the Sahel
What Happened
Assailants attacked Diori Hamani International Airport in Niger early Thursday, with gunfire lasting hours. Did I mention that airport has a 1,000 tons of yellow cake Uranium in it? Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM claimed responsibility for the attack, but this is not the first time an Islamist group has gone after the Uranium. In January an Islamic State affiliate tried the same thing. ACLED counts it the third attack on a Niger airport in six months. It's going to keep getting hit.
Why It Matters
The airport is not a soft target. It hosts the G5 Sahel force, Russian troops, and Niger's drone unit. (Also that uranium). The junta took power in 2023 promising security, expelled French and American forces, and bet on Russia and a homegrown strategy. Two strikes on the capital's airport in five months is the observable verdict on that bet. The Sahel's coup governments have staked their legitimacy on exactly the security they are failing to provide.
Long time readers of The Under Report might recognize this prediction from January. I'm not thrilled to be proven right about jihadists trying to steal Uranium, but here we are.
What We're Watching For
If JNIM and the Islamic State's Sahel affiliate keep competing for the same high-value urban targets
When the junta admits the security failure or, as in January, blames neighbors without evidence
Whether any strike reaches the airport's uranium stocks, turning a security crisis into an environmental one
5. North Korea just made its nukes permanent on paper
What Happened
ISW and AEI reported June 18 that North Korea's constitutional amendments cement the regime's strategic posture. The move follows Xi Jinping's June 8-9 visit to Pyongyang, his first since 2019, during which analysts assessed he implicitly legitimized North Korea's demands for recognition of its nuclear program and sanctions relief. Tacit support may embolden Pyongyang to seek concessions from Washington and Seoul. We're on the verge of a much bolder and more aggressive North Korea.
Why It Matters
For years the working theory in Washington was that the arsenal was leverage, something to trade for relief. However, surviving and thriving are two different things for The Hermit Kingdom. Writing nuclear status into the constitution right after a meeting with Beijing acts as approval. And it lands in the same week Trump's Iran memo taught every adversary a lesson. Hold a chokepoint, absorb the strikes, wait out Washington, and you get sanctions relief plus a reconstruction fund. Iran kept its uranium and got paid. Pyongyang is watching.
What We're Watching For
Whether North Korea pairs the constitutional change with a fresh missile or nuclear test to underline permanence
Whether China moves from tolerance to material sanctions relief on the ground
Whether Seoul hardens its own posture or presses Washington for reassurance
Eric's Tinfoil Hat
Here is my broad prediction for the week ahead and it sucks. Unfortunately, it is one which is quite personal to me since I will be in Lebanon all week.
The Lebanon ceasefire will break before this newsletter is a week old.
Watch for an Israeli "self-defense" strike inside seven days, framed as a response to a Hezbollah violation. The reality on the ground is this: Israel has lost soldiers and the support of Washington. If they walk away with nothing to show for it the Netanyahu government is done.
Unfortunately I believe that the structure of any enduring peace between the United States, Israel, Iran, and Lebanon goes through the Southern part of Lebanon. This is why everyone will fight for it tooth and nail.
On Iran, the MOU survives the week but the $300 billion fund does not make it through the month without a major overhaul. Trump is motivated by two things above all else, market performance and poll performance. The market might rebound a bit on news of a peace deal, but public perception is dropping like a rock.
Earlier this week Donald Trump stood in front of leaders at the G7 summit, put on a tough face and stated I'm the boss.
Everyone laughed.
See you next week.