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Hey everyone,

Welcome back to The Under Report.

Here's something I want you to understand: no country is magical, but they want you to believe they are.

The US and Israel can run out of missiles and political will in spite of threatening civilizations like iron age conquerers. Iran, Russia, and China can imagine a global future built on their terms while being locked inside of geographic cages.

This is why we look at what they do and not what they say. Today's Under Report about the difference between politics and policy. Or simply put, where reality shows leaders that they are liars.

As always, if you want to support my work, the best way to do that is to become a paid subscriber. Huge thank you to my early supporters, you make this possible.

Let's get into it.

Eric

P.S. If you become a paid subscriber I'll send along a digital copy of my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist.

What Happened. On April 10, a US State Department delegation flew to Havana for the first time since 2016 and met with Cuban officials, including Raúl Castro's grandson. Washington reportedly gave Havana until April 24 to release high-profile political prisoners, including San Isidro artists Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel "Osorbo" Castillo, and proposed Starlink access as a sweetener. Offering internet access through a private US company to a country without electricity is a strange symbolic gesture but it shows that the US is in the drivers seat. Cuba denied the ultimatum framing but confirmed the meeting. The three-month oil blockade continues. Diaz-Canel said Cuba is prepared to fight if Washington attacks.

Why It Matters. Cuba is the only active American blockade in the Western Hemisphere and runs on the same logic as Hormuz: starve the target until the politics break. More often than not, this triggers escalation. The difference is Cuba has no Iran-sized military, but it likely has deep control of its territory and an understanding that the US is stretched perilously thin. When the US can only run one maximum-pressure campaign at a time, the rational Cuban move is to slow-walk and wait.

This creates an opportunity for Russian and Chinese help. If they can keep the island alive until the US moves on, then Beijing or Moscow has bought themselves some valuable real estate less than 100 miles from the US. As always, this is a game of timelines.

What We're Watching For:

What Happened. On April 19, North Korea fired five upgraded Hwasong-11 Ra short-range ballistic missiles from Sinpo toward a target island 136 kilometers away. State media said Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the launches with his daughter. The missiles carried cluster bomb and fragmentation mine warheads and saturated 12.5 to 13 hectares at high density. This is Pyongyang's second cluster munition test this month, these are banned by the rules of war, but in 2026 it these seem more like guidelines anyway. The concerning bit it the fact that area coverage has doubled in these latest tests. That means more danger to civilians and more unexploded ordinance left over after a conflict.

Here's an important thing to note about the timing. This missile test happened at the same time as Russia and North Korea building diplomatic and literal bridges between the countries. It's a signal of unity and strength between the two countries which could change the balance of power.

(I'm curious what this does to the relationship between China and North Korea, but I have no assessment there yet).

Why It Matters. These are tactical weapons designed to defeat dispersed targets and dense air defense networks. The Iran war accelerated Kim's push to field cluster munitions after Israel's air defenses were stretched thin by Iranian saturation attacks. Pyongyang is studying the same lesson Hezbollah studied: US-Israeli missile defense has a throughput ceiling. It's really simple math. Fire enough warheads fast enough, something gets through. Kim is now building that capability at scale while letting the world know.

What We're Watching For:

Note From Eric: Dig The Under Report? Check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist.

What Happened. Between April 10 and 11, China installed a 352-meter floating barrier at the mouth of Scarborough Shoal, inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. The Philippine Coast Guard reported ten China Coast Guard vessels at the shoal between April 5 and 12. China pulled the barrier after the weekend. The ships stayed. Joint US-Philippines exercises begin this month in Zambales, 120 nautical miles away. If this sounds like a weird waste of time its not.

Why It Matters. This is how gray-zone pressure works. A barrier appears. International outrage follows. The barrier comes down. The ships remain. Each cycle expands the zone China effectively controls. The timing is not coincidental. Beijing is testing what it can absorb while Washington is consumed by Hormuz. So far the answer is: a lot. The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling found China's Scarborough blockade illegal. It has never been enforced. So is Beijing building a lake? The answer is: yes, but slowly.

What We're Watching For: