Bottom Line Up Front
Drama at Davos the World Economic Forum focuses on healing global divisions while the United States attacks European allies for Greenland
The Kurds (Syrian Defense Forces) Mobilize against the Syrian Army after a failed attempt at unification. This threatens the release of Islamic State fighters from SDF controlled prisons
Sudanese ceasefire risks giving forces an opportunity to retrench and freeze the line of contact
China courts Canada into a major trade deal taking marketshare away from an increasingly volatile United States
Europe opens free trade zone in South America balking at US control over trade and influence in the Western Hemisphere
Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
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— Eric
P.S. Check out this quick explainer on Davos. Honestly sometimes I have to remind myself what they're doing there besides having fondue.
1 | Explosive Davos Ahead
What happened?
The United States is burning bridges with allies over its quest to acquire Greenland. At present the Trump Administration is threatening an additional 10 percent tariff hike on European countries which don't support the US acquisition of the Danish territory. Meanwhile China and India are looking to fill negative space left by an increasingly belligerent US. Davos is going to be a bizarre slugfest in the snow.
Why does it matter?
Davos is about elite consensus. While it might not be good at solving problems, the World Economic Forum excels at identifying them. This years themes: Geoeconomic stability, weaponization of markets, emerging technological threats, and fractures in the world order. Greenland and Venezuela are the first hits of an aggressive new US foreign policy built around dominating the Western Hemisphere. Question is: will gaining new territory cost old allies? The official Under Report answer is, absolutely yes.
What we’re watching for:
Whether tariff threats become policy or remain leverage
European coordination on trade retaliation (We're already seeing this, read to the end)
European vs. NATO signaling. Sure they US might raise tariffs on Europe, but will it withdraw from NATO?
2 | The Kurds Mobilize in Northern Syria
What happened?
After months of attempted integration, the Syrian Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) have broken into direct conflict. The Syrian Army demands the turnover of SDF held territory including prisons containing Islamic State Fighters, many of whom have already escaped. This has inspired a mass mobilization in the Kurdish region stretching into Turkish and Iraqi Kurdistan. It can't be overstated how dangerous this is.
Why does it matter?
The Kurds have fought, held, and died for their sphere of influence to the West of the Euphrates River only to have the US abandon them to back the Syrian Army. The Kurds have more strategic depth and battlefields experience but The Syrian Army and their Turkish Allies have air power, numbers, and time. This has the potential to turn into a new Syrian civil war but it could also light a fire across the Kurdish world.
What we’re watching for:
Where Islamic State fighters show up next (best guess would be Palmyra)
Kobani and Manbij will likely be the definitive battlegrounds while Raqqa and Dier-ez-Zour will be the prizes
If the government in Iraqi Kurdistan decides to help negotiate a diplomatic solution or contribute soldiers to the fight
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