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Who's going to clean this up?
Hey Everybody,
I don't cover domestic news until it hits the outside world. This week that happened in a big way.
The midterms have forced a change in the US posture towards Iran and Russia while potentially putting appointed officials on the chopping block. This is ultimately a lesson in constraints. Understanding geopolitics is like watching a chess game. If you know the rules you understand which moves are so bad that no one in their right mind would make them.
Attacking Iran was that move. We always knew that it would go poorly. Speaking as both an American and someone who likes the world… it could have gone much worse. It is possible that it reignites but for now it seems that diplomacy is on the table.
Let's get to it.
Eric
P.S. I'm going to be speaking in Orange County, Los Angeles and New York in the next couple of months. If you'd like me to consider stopping in your city drop me a line!
Also listen to this podcast.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Iran set seven conditions before it will discuss its own nuclear proposal. Trump said a decision is coming "soon enough."
Israel's election is coming to a close through negotiations. Eisenkot has 67 recommendations with the help of the Arab parties.
Trump met Putin's envoy at the White House and skipped the Ukrainians. Deal momentum is collecting in Russia.
Sudan and Ethiopia closed each other's consulates. Is the Red Sea about to light up more than it already is?
North Korea's leading lady argued with the FBI. Then it launched some missiles.
Tehran Sends a Price List
What happened
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that Tehran sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar and will discuss it only after the US meets seven conditions, including sanctions relief, frozen funds and war reparations. Brent settled at $94.62 Wednesday after Trump conceded the war cost his party the Congress, and this morning Qatar's emir called Trump to press for diplomacy. This is a big change in tone but caution is more important than optimism.
Why it matters
Trump has said that the Iran War would be over soon before. Tehran's goals remain unchanged. If they achieve their goals the IRGC will come out an ascendent power in the Middle East. Potentially one of the most powerful. This is ultimately the calculation that Trump will have to make. It appears the only accessible escalation option would be a final assault on the nuclear program which would be unlikely to produce much change. Using ground troops would certainly strand them fighting a land war without logistical support. In the end, it is unlikely that Iran will change their demands. So the question is: sign now or sign later?
What we're watching for
A US strike described as anything other than defensive.
UKMTO confirmation of any Guard mine claim; so far they rest on Iranian statements.
A US reply through Doha. (Also understanding what the exact demands are).
Forecast: 30 percent chance that US forces strike Iranian territory in an action the White House does not call defensive, by Nov 20.
Bibi Loses the Count
What happened
President Herzog closed consultations Thursday with 67 Knesset members recommending Gadi Eisenkot and 46 recommending Netanyahu; United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and its seven seats named no one. Herzog cited "mutual vetoes" and will name a candidate Sunday. Trump said on election day that US military aid stops "by the end of this year"; the memorandum runs to 2028 and Congress appropriates the money. All this means that Bibi is in power, for now.
Why it matters
Netanyahu is a transitional prime minister and stays one until 61 members vote confidence in someone else. That is true through Sunday, through Eisenkot’s 28 days and any extension, and through a second mandate if the first fails. A caretaker avoids budgets and long commitments by convention. His war powers are intact, and caretakers have used them before, Netanyahu among them in 2019 and 2021. He keeps the strike plan on Iran that Trump deferred before the vote, and Trump says his own decision comes “soon enough.” The Nov 4 drone strike in south Lebanon was the first fatal one since September; a second front is his to reopen.
He has also moved to lock in the aid cutoff as his deal, which his office has framed as partnership, so whoever follows inherits his problem set. What Netanyahu controls is its tempo, in the weeks when a security crisis is the thing most likely to freeze coalition talks. So does Bibi use his last bit of power in the transitional phase or does he let the voters sort it out.
What we're watching for
Whether Herzog hands Eisenkot the mandate Sunday or delays.
Additional strikes in Southern Lebanon or Iran linked to Israel.
Any Likud court filing against the certified result, which has not happened.
Forecast: 85 percent chance Herzog gives Eisenkot the mandate Sunday, and 35 percent chance a government is sworn in by Dec 31.
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:
"The Envoy Who Got the Oval Office"
"The Horn Picks Sides on the Red Sea"
"Pyongyang Answers the FBI Three Times"
Eric's Field Note
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