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“I can't believe it's already election season.”

Hey Everybody,

The world isn't coming to an end.

But, it's often profitable for people to make you think that it is. Here's why apocalypse is on everyone's mind and a quick lesson on how to avoid the mental doom spiral.

First why its happening:

We are at the end of a very contentious election season which began with the Russian Duma and ends with the US Midterms. It is likely that the fall and winter offensives in Ukraine and Iran will begin after a long retrenchment in November. Both of these things taken together mean bombastic rhetoric and open military planning. Combine that with a news cycle built on fear and outrage and suddenly, it seems the world is coming to an abrupt close.

It's not. Now, here's a trick to stop the spiral.

Put your money where your fear is. You're certain the world will end in cataclysm? Name the date and time. Make a bet on it with a friend. You know a nuclear bomb will drop after midterms? Book a plane ticket somewhere else. Civil war is inevitable? Define where you think it will be fought.

When we descend into the specifics we can prepare for more likely realities instead of fighting unknown phantoms. Defining the exact nature of our fears is the best way to find the zipper on the costume of the movie monster. Are you worried about the globe blasting apart or the price of gas going up again? These are very different.

Will there be a 90 day blackout across the US? Probably not, but a short power outage is all but certain. Prepare for that. Paranoid insinuations and actionable information can be separated by asking the right questions. This is a great time to practice.

Let's get to it.

Eric

P.S. Here's a video of me explaining why the world isn't ending.

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

Five governments told their people and their bases to stock up. Meanwhile Washington told Middle East allies to expect Iranian retaliation against energy plants.

Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister with a ready strike plan. His bloc holds 53 seats, the opposition 48, Arab-led parties 19, and US forces are restocking for a post-midterm campaign.

Russia's grid campaign started a month early and reached NATO waters. Overnight strikes hit Kyiv and thermal plants across Ukraine; a container ship sank off Bulgaria after the fifth drone attack in its waters this month.

China's biggest purge since Mao. The plenum confirmed 33 expulsions and promoted the discipline chief to the Politburo.

Mexico will try a former state prosecutor for treason over a CIA raid. A federal judge sent César Jáuregui to trial for letting CIA officers join an April drug-lab raid without federal clearance.

72 Hours of Food and Water

What happened

On Oct 22 the UK Cabinet Office launched Be Ready, asking every household to hold three days of water, no-cook food, a radio, medicines and cash. Three days later Pentagon FORTRESS documents surfaced: about 500 US bases must be able to run 90 days without civilian power, fuel, water or supply lines. On Oct 26 Japan's disaster minister said every household will be asked for three days of food and water when its new Disaster Management Agency opens Nov 2. On Oct 27 Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency published a report on supplying a society through a years-long war. On Oct 28 two diplomats told the Associated Press that Washington had warned Middle East governments to prepare for strikes on Iran after Nov 3 and for retaliation against energy facilities.

Why it matters

Social media counted sixteen countries. Mostly these are programs which have been in flight for awhile: the European Union's 72-hour advice dates to March 2025, Germany has asked for ten days since the Cold War. Just because they weren't coordinated doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to them.

These warnings show us what Europe is expecting in case of an expansive Russian attack or rogue cyber incident. People will be without power, water, cash, and comms. This points to grid failure as a key chokepoint and its a reality which Ukraine has been living in for awhile.

All of this should be read as a sign that governments are looking down the road at things which might occur rather than ducking and covering.

What we're watching for

  • Whether Japan's Nov 2 appeal names anything beyond earthquakes.

  • If any Gulf government issues civil guidance before Nov 3. (sometimes they keep those things secret.)

  • A European state moves from advice to shelter inspections. (Finland has already begun.)

Forecast: 85 percent chance that at least two more G20 governments issue new household preparedness guidance by Dec 31.

Bibi is a Dangerous Caretaker

What happened

Netanyahu didn't win the Israeli elections but he didn't lose. He's not able to form a government but he can still wage war.

Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc 48, and the Arab-led parties a record 19. Meanwhile he pushed for a joint strike on Iran before the vote and Trump refused after IDF chief Eyal Zamir warned it would disrupt the election. On Oct 29 Admiral Brad Cooper briefed Trump on options at the White House. At the same time, a Patriot battery and a second carrier group are moving. The same day the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said three tankers struck mines on an unauthorized southern Hormuz route. Tehran has received Vice President Vance's letter and has not replied.

Why it matters

A caretaker government in Israel cannot pass a budget. It can go to war. The opposition fears a security crisis that freezes coalition formation. Eisenkot cannot reach 61 without Arab-led parties both blocs have ruled out. Netanyahu benefits greatly from a return to conflict in Iran. It can solidify his power to form a government in the next round of voting but it can also create a crisis which could delay the vote. In the end, Netanyahu's caretaker status amplifies an American timeline.

What we're watching for

  • Any crisis on the horizon after a strike on Iran.

  • Arrival of another carrier strike group into the Persian Gulf.

  • Whether Tehran answers the Vance letter before Nov 3.

Forecast: 85 percent chance that US or Israeli strikes on Iranian territory resume between Nov 4 and Dec 31.

Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:

  • “The Grid War Opened in October”

  • "Xi Keeps the Enforcer"

  • "Treason as Border Policy"

  • Eric's Field Note

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