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Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The Houthis took the coast. Mocha fell on September 10. Perim Island and the mouth of the Red sea is only 50 miles away.
Algeria cut the Emiratis loose. Algiers severed relations and shut its airspace. Abu Dhabi is responding in two ways.
The AfD won Saxony-Anhalt. The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took 43.8 percent, three seats short of governing alone. The German firewall is being put to the test. (Paid)
The US charm offensive between Russia and Ukraine yielded missiles. Witkoff and Kushner got three hours with Putin and a first visit to Kyiv. Russia struck Kyiv the morning they left. The Duma votes next week. (Paid)
Washington priced the hemisphere. Rubio signed with Colombia and courted Peru while Canada's counter-tariffs on 700 US products went live. (Paid)
Hey Everyone,
You're right, things aren't going back to normal.
That's okay, if we have an idea of how the world will look during and after the dust settles. Here are some things that this week shows us: Germany's push to the right comes along with the largest military budget in Europe. Proxy battles into regional wars. The United States is finding out that diplomacy only works if people are willing to listen.
Right now its important to keep track of which alliances break, who takes the lead, and what power stays on the periphery.
Let's get to it.
Eric
P.S. I was telling someone about Saudi stunt driving the other day and they had no idea what it was. This is what Saudi stunt driving is.
P.P.S. You might notice that I am now placing weekly forecasts on each story. Each forecast can be graded to track my "Brier Score.” This is a rigorous way of determining how often I am right statistically. I will publish my score quarterly.
Houthis Take the Coast
What happened
Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on September 10, Yemen's information minister told CNN, and the fighters pushed on to the Hanish islands. Right before the offensive Houthi strikes hit energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 by Riyadh's count. This is a huge escalation from a force which the world has been led to believe is a rag tag band.
Why it matters
Why does a port town matter? Mocha sits 50 miles north of Perim Island, and Perim is directly inside the Bab el-Mandeb, the mouth to the Red Sea. Saudi crude that avoids Hormuz leaves through Yanbu, and every Asia-bound barrel sails past Perim. That makes the southern Red Sea Riyadh's escape hatch. The Houthis are now running the Iranian playbook and attempting to toll the strait.
No ceasefire covers the Houthis, but this offensive demands a larger response from Saudi and likely the US.
What we're watching for
Houthi forces on Perim Island or the Dhubab peninsula before October 15, which would put both shores of the strait under one flag.
A Saudi ground push toward Mocha, which would mean Riyadh has decided the coast matters more than the Iranian front.
Kpler tanker tracking showing Yanbu loadings delayed, the first hard number that the toll booth works.
Forecast
70 percent chance that we see a joint US and Saudi attack in an attempt to retake the coast in the next 30 days.
Algiers Slams the Door on Abu Dhabi
What happened
Algeria severed diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates on September 10, citing hostile and provocative conduct without naming an incident. The Foreign Ministry gave the Emirati ambassador 48 hours, and the Defense Ministry closed Algerian airspace to UAE-registered aircraft from midnight September 11, with commercial flights to Algiers exempt through December.
The weird part is: Why were they closing the airspace?
Why it matters
The UAE has been expanding its power projection until someone notices. In Yemen, it backed a breakaway government on the south coast until Saudi Arabia threatened them directly. In Sudan, UAE support of the Rapid Support Forces has drawn global ire. Now, Abu Dhabi's connection to conflict in the Sahel and Western Sahara, is having diplomatic consequences.
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has spent a year accusing the UAE of destabilizing Libya and the Sahel and Algeria began cancelling its 2013 air services agreement with Abu Dhabi in February.
What we're watching for
Whether Emirati carriers lose their Algiers slots before December, the first commercial cost of the break.
A Saudi or Qatari mediation offer, which would show whether the Gulf treats this as an Emirati problem or a Gulf problem.
Any Algerian move against Emirati positions in Mali, where both compete for the junta's ear. (With the jihadist threat looming, the junta needs security partners).
Forecast
80 percent chance that diplomatic channels remain closed for at least a month.
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"Germany's Far Right Wins Small"
"Diplomats Do Nothing"
"Enemy Ledger: Canada and South America"
Eric's Tinfoil Hat prediction 👀
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