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Five Lit Fuses
Hey Everybody,
Sometimes I have to declare intellectual bankruptcy. I throw my hands up and say, I don't know how we got here or where we're going next. That's when the real work begins. Saying: I don't know, but I need to find out.
Weeks like this mean that I have to go back to first principles with simple questions. Why are the Houthis advancing so quickly? How come Russia says one thing and does another? Can AI end the world? Also… how?
So, this week we have five fuses burning. Some start in Yemen, others in silicon valley. Either way, I'm here to let you know why they matter and what might happen next.
Let's get to it,
Eric
P.S. Did you know we have a YouTube channel? Check out our latest episode The Secret of Jekyll Island.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
The Houthis hold the island in the strait. Perim and Dhubab fell on September 11. Riyadh asked four governments for air defense help while Washington sat down with the Houthis in Muscat.
America leaves Iraq. September 30 is the date. Drones launched from Iraqi soil shut Saudi Arabia's main export pipeline twenty days before the handover.
The labs asked for a referee. Three rival chiefs of AI firms backed a slower pace at the frontier. Washington and Beijing both demanded AI keep advancing. (Paid)
Russia is testing the fence. Drones struck a train two kilometers from Poland, a NATO jet shot down an intruder over Lithuania. Russian elections pave the way for mobilization. (Paid)
Tehran mobilizes. Iran is calling up its soldiers to rally an enormous force of ground troops. (Paid)
The Houthis Own the Strait
What happened
Houthi forces reached Perim Island and continued their eastward expansion. They've advanced throughout the mouth of the Red Sea threatening to choke off the Bab el-Mandeb, handing them powerful leverage over global energy and Riyadh.
This sent Saudi Arabia looking for help with ground troops to dislodge the Houthis, with few countries providing much assistance. On top of all of this, Yanbu, Saudi's East-West pipeline aimed at circumventing the Strait of Hormuz was shut down through kinetic attacks. All of this sent over 2,500 Yemeni refugees to Djibouti and spiked the price of oil
Why it matters
This is a regional blitzkrieg on Saudi Arabia and the global oil market at the same time. The Kingdom is in need of ground troops and international support if it wants to defeat the Houthis and open the mouth of the Red Sea, but this is in short supply with the US pinned down in Iran and Europe reticent to get involved.
Non-Chinese Asian countries will feel the pinch first as a significant amount of their oil comes from the Red Sea. This destabilization led China to calling on Iran to encourage its proxy to stand down.
Here's the bottom line: Saudi Arabia must address this situation or risk both economic collapse and domestic instability. It cannot act on its own because it lacks sufficient ground troops. The question is: who comes to their aid and at what cost?
What we're watching for
A Houthi strike on a Saudi-flagged tanker south of Yanbu, which would turn a declared blockade into an enforced one.
French or British air defense crews arriving in the kingdom, the first sign that Riyadh's request found a taker.
Houthi ground forces inside Marib city, which would end the government's hold on the north.
Forecast
60 percent chance that Houthi forces enter Marib city by October 18.
The US Leaves Iraq
What happened
The US-led coalition leaves Iraqi Kurdistan on September 30, a date the office of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi called fixed and final. This happens at a critical time, when Zaidi has commanded that paramilitary groups disarm or face terrorism charges. This is a warning aimed squarely at the Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Units which potentially launched a drone attack on Saudi Arabia from Maysan Province. Baghdad dismissed the Maysan commander and seized a launch platform. Riyadh held fire at Zaidi's request.
Why it matters
Who polices Iraqi soil on October 1st? Baghdad would like to have you believe that it is in complete control but that's a tall order. The Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Units have run significant portions of Iraq for over a decade. Iraqi Kurdistan, previously protected by the US presence, has had a historically contentious relationship with Baghdad.
For the center to hold it has to govern the edges.
If Zaidi wants to maintain the mandate to lead he will have to offer something which has always been in short supply when it comes to Iraq: equal protection and treatment under the law. This means attempting to govern areas which are used to fighting and dying for their own autonomy.
What we're watching for
Armed groups that ignore Zaidi's deadline and keep their drones on October 1.
A second strike on Saudi territory from Iraqi soil, which would end Riyadh's patience with Baghdad.
Drone or missile fire on Erbil in the first two weeks of October, with no Patriot battery left to answer.
Forecast
80 percent chance that Baghdad declares the coalition mission ended on or before September 30.
70 percent chance that PMU militias maintain some of their heavy armaments and military structure.
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:
"AI Threatens the World"
"Russia Tests the Fence"
"Tehran Puts on a Uniform"
Eric's Tinfoil Hat prediction 👀
The weekly podcast note
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