Sponsored by
I Almost Threw Out My Keurig. It Wasn't Broken.
Every cup from my Keurig started tasting weak, flat, stale — so I unplugged it and stuck it in a closet. Then I learned the dirty secret of grocery store K-Cups: by the time a pod reaches your kitchen, it's usually spent months going from factory to warehouse to truck to shelf. The flavor oils are long gone. Some brands even over-roast to hide it.
The fix wasn't a new machine. It was fresh pods from Angelino's, a family-owned L.A. roastery that roasts, packs, and ships within 3–5 days — straight to your door, from 39¢ a cup. Over 1,000,000 happy customers. 50+ flavors, no subscription required, and 15% off your first order, applied automatically at checkout.
“Go Fish.”
Hey everybody,
The United Nations General Assembly is like the Super Bowl, except the speeches are the commercials and the game is what goes on in the hallways.
This week we saw some conflicts come unstuck (Iran/US) others drive forward (Russia) and others come out of nowhere (Ethiopia). The temptation here is to triangulate activity based off of the upcoming US elections. They are important, just not that important.
The reality is this: US power has defined its limits. This gives everyone else an opportunity to test theirs. Think of each move as level setting what might come next.
Let's get to it,
Eric
P.S. For a fantastic primer on Russia, make sure to check out my conversation with Simon Ostrovsky.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Tehran offered a reopening and kept the strait shut. A seven-day proposal went through mediators the day before Pezeshkian told the UN Iran would fight to the last breath.
Revolutionary Guard advisers ran the Houthi coast offensive. Guard officers were in the field when the Houthis took the whole Yemeni coast in 48 hours. Saudi Arabia lost both export routes in a week and Washington called off its strike.
Russia sealed its bank of the Narva and sent drones into Moldova. A ten-day FSB lockdown opposite Estonia's border city, six drone incidents in Moldova, a helicopter across the Polish line. European capitals are counting hospital beds.
Xi and Trump both want the Iran war over. That is where agreement ends. Beijing holds the rare earths and wants the Taiwan arms package shelved; Washington wants the minerals flowing and the strait open before November.
Ethiopia is back in civil war. Tigray forces took three airports and joined Amhara and Oromo insurgents under one banner, five days after Washington lifted sanctions on Eritrea. Four years after Pretoria, the country's three largest regions are in revolt.
Tehran Can Wait
What happened
Three ships a day are transiting the Strait of Hormuz this week, against 74 a day before the war, per the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch data. Two tankers were hit inside 24 hours on Sept. 20 and 21. On Sept. 22 a senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran would reopen the strait within seven days if Washington began lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. On Sept. 23 President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN General Assembly that Iran would fight until its last breath and yield nothing on the strait, its missiles, or its nuclear program.
Why it matters
So there's no contradiction here. The UN speech was for international and domestic audiences. Iran can't respond to existential threats with calls for dialogue. However, both sides are making moves towards the negotiating table after the midterm elections. Meanwhile the Trump administration is looking for wins to claim in the face of a crushing economy. The ten-year Treasury hit 5.13 percent on Sept. 23, its highest since 2007. Diesel is above $6 in 49 states.
Everyone wants an end, but no one wants to look like they're asking for it.
What we're watching for
A written Iranian proposal that names the transit-permit regime as surviving any deal.
A UKMTO bulletin with attribution inside 72 hours of a mediated meeting.
Any Qatari or Omani statement giving a date for the next round.
Forecast
80 percent chance of new kinetic strikes in the Strait of Hormuz before the midterm elections.
Riyadh Looks For a Friend
What happened
The Houthis took Yemen's entire Red Sea coast, including Perim Island in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab, in under 48 hours. Reuters reported on Sept. 10 that the advance came with direct IRGC guidance "at all levels." A flight brought reinforcements, and Iranian personnel ran the communications intercepts and satellite intelligence. Drones launched from Iraq forced the Saudi energy ministry to shut the East-West pipeline on Sept. 11. Trump came within hours of ordering strikes on the Houthis after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed him, then called them off.
By any measure, this is an incredible amount of coordination which backed down both Saudi Arabia and the US.
Why it matters
Iraqi militias and the Houthis, both armed by Tehran, closed Saudi Arabia's east and west export routes inside the same week. But wars have secondary effect. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) counts 129,000 displaced inside Yemen; more than 3,000 have crossed to Djibouti, where Houthi positions on Perim sit twenty miles from the American and Chinese bases.
They can be targeted at any time, they just haven't been.
What we're watching for
A Houthi strike on a vessel that is not Saudi-flagged or Saudi-owned. If that happens then they're everyone's problem, not just Riyadh.
Over 5,000 refugees arriving in Djibouti at once, that could indicate a larger humanitarian crisis.
Any coalition or US statement naming Perim or the Hanish Islands as a target.
Forecast
35 percent chance of a US or coalition strike on Houthi positions on Perim or the Hanish Islands by Oct. 24.
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:
“Moscow Locks Its Side of the River”
"What Xi and Trump Each Came to Buy"
"Ethiopia Goes Back to War"
Eric's Field Note
The weekly podcast note
Subscribe to The Under Report to get the full scoop.
Become a paying subscriber of The Under Report to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Get the Intel Now!