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"…but I wouldn't vote for him again.”
Hey Everybody
I'm pretty tired.
Albanian protests turned violent over the last couple of days I'm covering it from the ground.
Here's what I'm learning:
Ignoring peaceful protests for a long period of time whittle down the options of a dedicated population. Violence is hard to control once it starts. Escalation is the only option when there is no point of contact for dialogue. People are smart, they know when they're getting screwed. Everyone has a breaking point.
Tear gas is effective and well named.
If you'd like my on the ground reporting please read it here. I am updating daily. If you want to support my work, the best way to do so is to become a paying subscriber.
Let's get to it.
P.S. I was supposed to record some new podcasts this week. The studio got burned down. Strange times.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Albania's protests have gone violent. The student riot fused with the Flamingo movement, five cities saw clashes, Parliament cancelled its sitting and banks emptied their ATMs.
Saudi strikes back on Yemen. A Houthi missile hit the Riyadh airport terminal, debris struck Aramco's headquarters, and Saudi jets flew their first strikes on Yemen since 2022.
Boats sink, NATO waits. Seven merchant ships hit since Oct 5, one sunk off Bulgaria, tankers burning in Romanian waters. No one is naming Russia, yet.
Ethiopian forces took Tigray's capital. They also struck Eritrean troops with drones, and entered the border town Eritrea held.
Kabila takes the rebellion M23 dissolved itself into a front with Joseph Kabila as president. Kinshasa answered by banning his party.
Flamingo Revolution Catches Fire
What happened
On Tuesday a student rally over tuition and dormitories outside Albania's Education Ministry turned into a fight with police. By Wednesday the students and the Flamingo movement, peaceful since May 31, were one crowd. It burned the ground floor of the Justice Ministry, raided banks on live television and lit a barricade where Rruga e Kavajës meets Skanderbeg Square.
The Health Ministry counted 89 injured, 61 of them police. Thursday was bigger. High schoolers joined, Parliament cancelled its session, banks emptied their ATMs, and crowds entered the Economy Ministry. Clashes reached Shkodër, Durrës, Korçë and Elbasan. Prime Minister Edi Rama told Reuters he will not resign. The Democratic Party demanded a caretaker government.
Why it matters
I have been inside the cordon for three days. The people doing the damage are high-school and university-aged men, a demographic a September tuition freeze would have bought off. Older bystanders cheer and film them. The line from every age group: we tried the peaceful way.
What changed is the target list. Since Wednesday the crowd has gone after the buildings where the state keeps its money, and in Shkodër it smashed the opposition's windows too. Rama's claim that the Democrats organized this dies with a crowd that attacks both parties.
The regime's weak point is visible from the street: too few riot police, deployed late, holding cordons that break. Rama won a fourth term last year and the next election is due in 2029. The one mechanism that removes him sooner is his own Socialist bench.
What we're watching for
A Socialist deputy or minister breaking ranks in public.
A police union statement, a general strike call, or the army on public order.
A student package that sends the high schoolers home.
Forecast: 10 percent chance that Rama announces his resignation, a caretaker government or early elections by November 15.
80 percent chance the protests expand their target set from political, economic, and financial hubs to include private businesses.
Saudi Strikes Yemen
What happened
On October 10 a Houthi missile hit the terminal of King Khalid International Airport. The coalition counts 20 attacks on the airport this month, 17 dead. On October 13 debris struck Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. On October 13 and 14 the coalition struck fuel sites in Sanaa, Dhamar and Hodeidah, its first strikes on Yemen since the 2022 truce. On October 15 Houthi missiles hit the presidential palace in Aden and killed five. The airport stays shut through October 17.
This led Saudi Arabia to hit back at the Houthis and issue a statement to those living in the capital to relocate. However, Saudi Arabia recently found out that its partner forces in Yemen are mostly a paper army. This means that their military (used to internal defense) is going to have to figure out offensive actions.
Why it matters
Saudi Arabia spent four years paying the Houthis to leave it alone. That ended the week a missile reached the capital's terminal. Riyadh chose to fly, which puts Saudi jets over Yemen while the Houthis hold Perim Island and Mokha at the mouth of the Red Sea. Tehran wants a Saudi Arabia that prefers sanctions relief for Iran to a war in Yemen, and the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers spoke on October 11. An off-ramp may exist. The closed airport is the fact.
What we're watching for
A US strike on a Houthi launch site; Trump said October 11 the United States "may" join.
Whether Riyadh's airport reopens on October 17.
A Saudi-Iranian channel producing a stated pause in Houthi fire.
Forecast: 65 percent chance that the US military confirms a strike on a Houthi target in Yemen by November 15.
Want to support independent analysis and journalism? Join the Under Report for full access. Here's what full subscriptions are reading this week:
“Ships Sink NATO Waits”
"Ethiopia Takes the Capital"
"Kabila Takes the Rebellion"
Eric's Field Note
Make sure you’re subscribed to The Under Report podcast to never miss an episode:
Ships Sink NATO Waits
What happened
Since October 5 drones have hit seven merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania. On October 13 the bulk carrier HS Dignity sank off Krapets with 11 crew missing and the Chelsea 3 was struck near Varna. On October 14 and 15 the tankers Yara J and Wine Trader caught fire inside Romanian waters near Sulina, seven missing. NATO's Mark Rutte met Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on October 15, and Bulgaria will join NATO's Drone Edge program by the end of October.
Why it matters
Ships are being sunk inside the territorial sea of two NATO members and nobody is saying who did it. I will. It was Russia.
Radev said it: we cannot prove it. The treaty covers an armed attack on a member's territory, forces or vessels. A Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship off Krapets is none of those. The problem is, its close enough to send a message that is very clear. The fact that no one naming Russia is a decision which prevents escalation but permits more incursions.
What we're watching for
A named escort mission from NATO or a Romania-Bulgaria-Turkey group.
Public attribution of any strike by Sofia or Bucharest. (It's crazy this hasn't happened).
Any responsibility taken for the attacks.
Forecast: 45 percent chance that NATO or a Black Sea coalition announces escorted convoys or a named maritime protection mission by November 15.
Ethiopia Takes the Capital
What happened
Ethiopian federal forces entered Mekelle on October 3 after the TPLF withdrew. On October 7, Ethiopian drones struck Eritrean troops around Adigrat, with satellite confirmation of the sites. On October 13, Reuters reported on six sources that federal troops entered Zalambessa, the border town Eritrean units had taken the previous week. Both governments are seeking the intervention of the UN security council but its unclear how helpful that will be.
Why it matters
Ten days ago Ethiopia accused Eritrea of backing the TPLF. This week it struck Eritrean soldiers on its own soil and marched to the border. This means that the previous peace agreement is dead and buried. It also activates the alignment network which could lead to a larger conflict in the Red Sea.
Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan signed a joint declaration at El Alamein on October 4 that does not name Ethiopia and does not need to. Abiy wants the sea. Asmara, Cairo and Mogadishu want him off it. We need to see who supports the Ethiopian government and what a step down could look like.
What we're watching for
A wire confirming Ethiopian troops inside Eritrea, or Eritrean fire on an Ethiopian town.
Egyptian or Emirati military flights into Asmara.
A TPLF statement on where its fighters went.
Forecast: 25 percent chance that Reuters, AP or AFP reports Ethiopian ground forces inside Eritrea, or Eritrean strikes on an Ethiopian town, by November 15.
Kabila Takes the Rebellion
What happened
If you follow Congolese politics, this is wild.
On October 12 in Goma, former president Joseph Kabila launched the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), a political and military body that absorbs AFC/M23, with himself as president. Kinshasa sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in 2025. On October 15 the FRN claimed M23's seat in the Doha talks. The same day Congo's interior ministry banned the activities of 13 parties, including Kabila's PPRD. M23 retook Numbi, Shanje and Kavumu on October 7.
Why it matters
The eastern rebellion had a Rwandan sponsor now it has a man who ran the country for 18 years and attacked the US-Congo minerals deal at his launch. Doha and the Washington accords were built with M23 as the counterparty. Kinshasa cannot sit across from a man it condemned to death without reversing itself; its first move was to ban his party. The competing read: Kigali engineered the rebrand to give the war a Congolese name before a deal. Either way, Doha must decide whose seat it is.
What we're watching for
Qatar confirming its link with the new party.
Any shift in operations, private militaries are currently fighting M23, so if the new government provides a mouthpiece things might slow down.
Anything Kabila says.
Forecast: 25 percent chance that the Doha mediation hosts FRN representatives under the FRN name in a round with Kinshasa by November 15.
Eric's Field Note
Someone asked me a simple question this week and I was surprised at my own answer. She asked me "Why does it seem like this is happening everywhere.” She was talking about the Albanian protests which have recently turned violent.
Here was my answer.
Wealth and power in the world used to be controlled mostly by nation states who could negotiate with one another. Digital technologies, globalization, and decentralized manufacturing allowed a small group of individuals to accrue the wealth and power of nation states. They then directed policy to benefit their organizations making them a new political unit.
These political units are beholden to generating revenue rather than optimizing for stability.
So now, instead of having large political units interested in long term stability for significant populations we have a small cohort of people and businesses who are better funded and equipped than many nation states. They are interested in their own survival rather than the stability of the nations from which they grew. A multi faceted system like this tends towards chaos and a winner-take-most end state.
We are in the transition and not the end.
Anyway, that was a weird conversation to have over Instragram messanger.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.
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