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The Financial Times recently discovered Russian engineers coaching Iran on the development of a ramjet engine which can propel a missile to Mach 5. These ship killer weapons could be the exact asymmetry needed by Iran to break the blockade.

On September 1, the Financial Times published leaked Russian correspondence, travel records and patent filings on a program codenamed C430L. Since 2023, engineers from Rosoboronexport and NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Russia's cruise missile builder, have helped Iran build a ramjet. The work continued through this year's US and Israeli strikes. The FT found a tested engine and no evidence of a finished missile in service.

But that doesn't mean we won't see one in action soon.

A jet engine with no moving parts. At speed, air 'rams’ into the intake, compresses itself and burns. That allows a cruise missile hold several times the speed of sound while skimming the water. Hypersonic means Mach 5 and above. We know that Russia has deployed these weapons before, so indigenous Iranian development might not be necessary.

International technology transfer comes in a couple of different ways. Sometimes it’s 'teaching a man to fish,’ like in the case of Taiwan's IDF fighter. The US couldn't sell them the jet engine directly but they could train up the skills. Other times tech transfers are about 'giving a man a fish,’ like when the US gave Stinger Missiles to the Afghan mujahideen.

In this case, Russia could do both.

While the documents appear to indicate training around ramjet development, it is equally possible that Iran has a functioning system handed over by Moscow.

This technology is a blockade breaker. Iran's ballistic missiles follow a high, arcing path, and US and Israeli defenses caught most of them. CSIS sums up the problem: missiles that are fast, low and maneuverable leave defenders seconds to react. A sea-skimming missile at Mach 3 is built for one target, an American carrier group in the Gulf. It also raises the price of every ship that runs the Strait of Hormuz, which pairs with the toll plan we covered last week.

Right now major powers are exploring a variety of escalation options. The US is attempting an Economic D-Day. Russia is widening the war in Ukraine to include new theaters of combat. Now, Iran is reaching for a hypersonic option to solve its blockade problem.

Times like these breed unexpected consequences.