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Hey Everyone,

Rushing to conclusions is the surest path towards faulty thinking. Certainty is a hell of a drug and we're all addicted to some extent.

We saw that this week.

A violent incident aboard a flight bound for Tel Aviv. Men in vans arrested outside of a US airbase. What do we actually know? As it turns out, not much. It doesn't mean that we will never know, it just means we don't know right now.

This is deeply frustrating in a world where it feels that threats are ever present and information is our only shield. But, believing the crowd is a pretty reliable way to letting our collective imagination run away with us.

Pause. Read the facts again. What do you actually know? “I don't know” are brave words especially when punctuated with “yet."

Let's get to it,

Eric

P.S. I think this book tells the future.

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

A third carrier sails toward Iran as the last US troops leave Iraq The Theodore Roosevelt and 2,000 Marines are bound for the Middle East. Trump calls new strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms "possible."

Russia hits Ukraine's grid as Brussels declines Kyiv's 27 billion euro request Emergency power cuts reached Kyiv on Sept. 30 for the first time since spring.

China halts fuel exports six days after Trump asked Xi for more PetroChina cancelled most of its October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes.

The 2018 peace ends as Ethiopia and Eritrea cut ties Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara, and Eritrea severed all relations. Federal troops push toward Mekelle.

Brazil votes Sunday after its spies briefed Europe on Washington Brazil's intelligence agency told French and German officials it had found US and Russian interference, Reuters reports. Runoff polls show a tie.

What happened

The carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island are bound for the Middle East with more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, a US official told the Associated Press. On Sept. 30 the last US forces left Erbil Air Base, ending the coalition mission in Iraq. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York on Sept. 28. In the Strait of Hormuz, three tankers were hit by unknown projectiles on Sept. 29.

Why it matters

Washington is moving its weight from Iraqi soil to the water. Bases sit inside Iranian missile range and beside militias, and ships can sail out of it. The Marines add options beyond airstrikes, such as tanker escorts or island seizures. Look at the calendar. President Donald Trump told Time that new strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms are "possible." Tehran has a date to plan around, and the strait shows how it plans.

What we're watching for

Forecast: 60 percent chance of a US air or missile strike on Iranian territory by Nov. 30, as reported by AP or Reuters.

What happened

Russia hit Ukraine's power system on Sept. 30 with its heaviest combined strike on energy sites in months, killing seven people. Grid operator Ukrenergo ordered emergency cuts in Kyiv and three nearby regions, the capital's first since spring, after strikes damaged the Trypillia thermal plant. The European Union has turned down Kyiv's request to speed up loan payouts and cover a 27 billion euro military shortfall, Bloomberg reported Oct. 1. Russia extended its ban on diesel exports through Oct. 31 after Ukrainian drone strikes cut its refinery output.

Why it matters

Winter is coming and Moscow knows it. Russia warned in August that it was preparing to bombard Ukraine's energy system in answer to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. That turns the grid into a bargaining chip: Kyiv's lights for Moscow's refineries. Ultimately, this is a pathway towards escalation rather than closer to the negotiating table.

What we're watching for

Forecast: 30 percent chance of an attributed or unattributed attack on the infrastructure of a NATO country by December 1st which demands unified response.